Keith Law's Outlier Rankings Spark Debate in Cubs' Prospect Hierarchy

https://icaro.icaromediagroup.com/system/images/photos/16036599/original/open-uri20240205-55-1b3ddho?1707165401
ICARO Media Group
News
05/02/2024 20h24

In a recent prospect ranking list released by Keith Law, there are a few notable outliers that have sparked debate among Cubs fans and baseball enthusiasts. Law's rankings deviate significantly from the consensus opinions on certain prospects, leaving many intrigued and questioning his assessments.

While some of Law's rankings align with what has been seen elsewhere, such as the positioning of PCA, Shaw, and Busch, there are a couple of rankings that stand out as being surprisingly high or low. One glaring outlier is Law's ranking of Alcántara, a tall center field prospect, who Law considers to have substantial development potential. According to Law, Alcántara possesses superstar-level tools and has the capability to hit 35-40 home runs. Despite possessing a 6-6 frame and a swing that may seem out of control at times, Alcántara has managed to maintain a strikeout rate of around 24 percent, a positive sign for his long-term outlook. Law believes that Alcántara has the potential to become an above-average or better everyday player.

On the other hand, Law's ranking of Horton, a pitching prospect, has raised eyebrows as well. Despite Horton ranking only as the 9th best pitching prospect in baseball, Law acknowledges that he may have underestimated him. In college, Horton relied heavily on a fastball-slider combination, but the Cubs helped him refine his changeup, turning it into a plus pitch. Law acknowledges that Horton's mid-rotation starter projection may be selling him short, especially considering his rapid development, having finished his first full professional year in Double-A just 16 months after college.

Law's rankings have prompted discussions surrounding the absence of Owen Caissie, a consensus top-50 prospect, and the reasons behind it. While Law does not offer a concrete explanation for Caissie's absence, speculation suggests that positional and contact concerns may be influencing the decision.

It is important to note that Law's rankings are centered around potential rather than probability, focusing on the upside and projection of each prospect. Law recognizes the talent level in the Cubs' system but remains cautious due to the inherent risks associated with certain players.

The release of Law's rankings has generated much interest, with fans eagerly debating the reasoning behind his outlier opinions. While some embrace the idea of Alcántara's immense potential, others question the likelihood of his reaching superstar status. The same applies to Horton, with fans eager to see if he can build on his impressive development.

Law's comprehensive list of the top 100 prospects is worth exploring for deeper insights into the talent pool across various teams. It becomes evident that Law holds a high regard for many of the better prospects within the NL Central and recognizes the overall strength of the division.

As the Cubs' prospects continue their journeys through the minor leagues, it will be fascinating to see how Law's rankings stand the test of time and whether they accurately reflect the future success of these players. Only time will tell if these outliers will prove to be justified or simply subjective assessments amidst an ocean of differing opinions.

The views expressed in this article do not reflect the opinion of ICARO, or any of its affiliates.

Related