Absences of Top Quarterbacks Drake Maye and Caleb Williams Impact Bowl Game Spreads

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ICARO Media Group
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15/12/2023 21h31

With these key players opting out, oddsmakers and bettors alike are adjusting their expectations and wagers.

The upcoming Duke's Mayo Bowl between North Carolina and West Virginia has seen a notable shift in the spread. Initially, North Carolina opened as a 3.5-point underdog, but that number has now increased to 6.5 points at BetMGM. This change is largely attributed to Maye's announcement earlier in the week that he would not be participating in the bowl game as he focuses on preparing for the 2024 NFL Draft. The majority of bets and money are now favoring West Virginia to cover the spread, perhaps influenced by the absence of the potential No. 1 pick in the upcoming draft.

Replacing Maye in the bowl game for the Tar Heels will be redshirt freshman Conner Harrell, who has only attempted six passes throughout the entire season. This lack of experience raises concerns for North Carolina and may be a contributing factor to the shift in the spread.

In a similar fashion, USC's match against No. 16 Louisville in the Holiday Bowl has also seen a shift in the spread due to the absence of Caleb Williams. USC initially opened as a 6.5-point underdog, but that number has now risen to 7.5 points. While Williams has not officially declared for the NFL Draft, USC head coach Lincoln Riley has already confirmed that Williams will not be participating in the bowl game. As a result, the majority of bets and money are siding with Louisville to cover the spread.

The Cotton Bowl matchup between No. 9 Missouri and No. 7 Ohio State has seen the most considerable spread shift of all the bowl games so far. Missouri, initially a 6.5-point underdog, is now a surprising 2.5-point favorite. The absence of Ohio State quarterback Kyle McCord, who is in the transfer portal, has likely contributed to this shift. The decision of Heisman finalist Marvin Harrison Jr. is still pending, further impacting the spread. Nevertheless, a significant majority of bets and money are now favoring Missouri to cover the spread, with an optimistic outlook on their chances of winning outright.

Away from the specific absences, BetMGM has highlighted Alabama as the most popular team among bettors leading up to bowl season. Over 70% of bets and money are on Alabama as a 1.5-point underdog against No. 1 Michigan in the Rose Bowl College Football Playoff semifinal. Michigan, initially favored by 2.5 points, is now the bookmakers' hope, with BetMGM emphasizing their need for a Wolverines victory. Washington, Florida State, and Ohio State are also teams that, if successful, would yield positive outcomes for the sportsbook.

Looking ahead to the Sugar Bowl CFP semifinal, No. 3 Washington is attracting nearly 60% of the money as a 4-point underdog against No. 2 Texas. The over/under for the game has jumped from 62.5 to 64.5, indicating a growing expectation for a high-scoring match.

As bowl season kicks off, the absences of key players like Drake Maye and Caleb Williams continue to shape the betting landscape. With spreads shifting and betting patterns evolving, fans and bettors alike eagerly await the outcomes and performances of the teams involved.

The views expressed in this article do not reflect the opinion of ICARO, or any of its affiliates.

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