49ers Must Adapt to Slowing Down an Evolved Patrick Mahomes in Super Bowl Rematch

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ICARO Media Group
News
06/02/2024 22h14

In a highly anticipated Super Bowl rematch between the San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs, the 49ers are faced with a daunting challenge - stopping Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. However, they shouldn't rely solely on their past encounter with Mahomes in Super Bowl LIV, as the quarterback has evolved his playing style since then.

Back in 2019, the Chiefs possessed an electrifying deep passing game, with Mahomes averaging an impressive depth of target of 8.5 yards per Pro Football Focus. He threw deep on 12.2 percent of his throws, notching 15 touchdowns and just three interceptions on tosses of 20-plus yards downfield. His intermediate throws between 10 and 19 yards also showcased his prowess, accounting for 20.5 percent of his passes.

Even with a significant portion of his tosses being short game plays, Mahomes displayed his dominance on the field with a combined 59.4 percent of his throws coming either behind the line of scrimmage or within 9 yards of it. His partnership with prime receivers Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce caused immense trouble for opposing defenses.

However, this season sees a different Chiefs offense, as Hill has left and Kelce is in the later stages of his prime. Kansas City has had to rely on a patchwork receiving corps, including rookie Rashee Rice, Justin Watson, Mecole Hardman, and Marquez Valdez-Scantling. Additionally, the absence of Kadarius Toney, albeit a questionable presence in the lineup, has affected their receiving options.

In response to the change in personnel, Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid have adjusted their passing game strategy. They now prioritize Mahomes' ability to process and extend plays, employing a more controlled passing attack that demands more from the quarterback.

Although explosive plays are still part of their game, Mahomes has become more likely to opt for checkdowns or short throws. His average depth of target has dropped to 6.9 yards, tying him at 38th out of 44 qualified quarterbacks. His deep throw rate decreased to 10.3 percent, resulting in only two touchdowns and six interceptions on those throws.

Comparing the numbers to 2019, Mahomes now targets the intermediate area only 17.7 percent of the time, while the short area accounts for 40 percent of his passes. Most notably, his throws behind the line of scrimmage have significantly increased from 17.8 percent in 2019 to 23.1 percent this season. Mahomes threw an astonishing 112 screen passes this year, compared to just 66 five years ago.

The implications of these changes are significant for the 49ers. Instead of defending a primarily vertical attack in their previous Super Bowl meeting, they now face a more compact Chiefs passing game. While this doesn't necessarily mean it is less effective, it does introduce uncertainty regarding the success of long throws, putting the responsibility on the receivers to make the catch.

To effectively "stop" Mahomes in this evolved passing game, the 49ers will need to prioritize tackling. Allowing Mahomes to scramble or allowing pass catchers to gain yards after short throws is where the Chiefs can create chunk plays. Tackling has been a notable issue for San Francisco this season, as they missed a staggering 150 tackles.

However, if the 49ers can address their tackling woes in the Super Bowl, they have a genuine chance of slowing down this new version of the Chiefs' passing game and seeking redemption for their loss to Mahomes four years ago.

The much-anticipated clash between the 49ers and Mahomes will undoubtedly be a thrilling battle of wits and adaptability, proving once again that in football, evolution is essential for success.

The views expressed in this article do not reflect the opinion of ICARO, or any of its affiliates.

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