Tesla Bears Predict Underperformance as AI Concerns and Revenue Growth Constraints Loom
ICARO Media Group
An informal poll conducted by Morgan Stanley among Tesla institutional investors has revealed a bearish sentiment towards the electric vehicle (EV) company, with many predicting that the stock will underperform over the next six months. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, in a note on Wednesday, described the gathering as the "most bearish of our Tesla bull/bear lunches," citing understandable reasons for the prevailing pessimism.
Several factors contribute to the overall bearishness among investors, with one prominent concern being Tesla's exclusion from the recent surge in artificial intelligence (AI)-related technology stocks. Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, received criticism after tweets in mid-January hinted at the possibility of separating AI efforts into separate companies, potentially depriving Tesla of the gains made in its AI endeavors. This move appears to have sidetracked Tesla from the AI theme for 2024, causing investors to focus on the deteriorating demand narrative for EVs.
Morgan Stanley had previously praised Tesla's AI and supercomputing prowess, incorporating them into its long-term growth models. However, sentiment towards Tesla's AI capabilities has soured to such an extent that Jonas claims the company is not just excluded from the AI trade but finds itself on the opposite side of it.
Investors also expressed concerns over Tesla's revenue growth potential, a notion previously considered unthinkable given the company's strong performance over the years. Doubts have arisen regarding whether Tesla can maintain volume growth compared to the impressive Q4 run-rate of 2 million units. Notably, Tesla reported a record-breaking quarter of 484,507 deliveries in Q4, but management warned of a potentially lower growth rate in vehicle volume moving forward.
Despite the prevailing bearish sentiment, Jonas reiterated Morgan Stanley's Overweight rating and $345 price target on Tesla stock, suggesting an 80% upside from current levels. However, achieving this would require Tesla to overcome challenges faced not only by EV makers but by the broader auto sector as well, including higher interest rates, increased costs, and potential supply gluts.
As the market awaits Tesla's next moves, anxious investors are closely watching the company's ability to address AI concerns and sustain revenue growth in the face of an increasingly challenging industry landscape.