In an industry where the excitement surrounding rookie quarterbacks often reaches a fever pitch, the recent track record of the 2021 NFL draft class proves that not every pick is a guaranteed winner. As the 2024 draft approaches, speculation is growing about the potential of quarterbacks such as Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Bo Mix, Drake Maye, J.J. McCarthy, and Michael Penix Jr. However, looking back at the 2021 draft, it becomes clear that the success rate of quarterbacks taken in the top 15 picks has been less than stellar.

Out of the five quarterbacks selected in the top 15 picks in 2021, a majority have failed to live up to expectations. The trend of disappointment started with the third overall pick, Trey Lance, who was traded from the San Francisco 49ers to the Dallas Cowboys for a fourth-round pick. Continuing the pattern, the fifteenth selection, Mac Jones of the New England Patriots, was recently traded to the Jacksonville Jaguars for a sixth-round pick. Justin Fields, the eleventh overall pick, suffered a similar fate, being traded to the Pittsburgh Steelers for a sixth-round pick in 2025. Even the consensus second overall pick, Zach Wilson, has struggled to perform, with the Jets contemplating offering a sixth-round pick to transfer his hefty $5.4 million guaranteed compensation package to another team.

This trend of disappointment highlights the volatility and unpredictability of the NFL draft. Only Trevor Lawrence, the first overall pick who joined the Jacksonville Jaguars, has shown promise as a potential franchise quarterback. However, even his future remains uncertain, as the Jaguars experienced a late-season collapse in 2023, leaving questions about his ability to live up to his draft status. It may take another season to determine whether Lawrence truly becomes the player his status suggests.

Looking beyond the top picks, the overall performance of the 2021 quarterback draft class has been lackluster. Players like Kyle Trask, Kellen Mond, Davis Mills, Ian Book, and Sam Ehlinger, who were drafted or signed as undrafted free agents, have not shown the potential to become future stars or even solid contributors. This lack of success in the draft class only further emphasizes the risk involved in selecting rookie quarterbacks.

As teams prepare for the upcoming 2024 draft, some are once again placing their hopes on rookie quarterbacks. While this year's class holds promise, it serves as a stark reminder that success is far from guaranteed. The 2021 quarterback draft class has demonstrated that the NFL draft remains a gamble, with even the most highly touted prospects having no certainty of becoming franchise players.

As the draft season approaches its late April crescendo, it is important to remember that evaluating and projecting the future success of quarterbacks is a challenging task. While some top prospects may fulfill their potential, the recent history of the NFL draft serves as a reminder that it can be a coin flip at best.