Young Voters Favor Trump Over Kamala Harris, New Poll Shows
ICARO Media Group
According to a recent poll conducted by Quinnipiac University, former President Donald Trump is gaining support among younger voters, surpassing Vice President Kamala Harris in popularity. The survey, which took place between July 19 and 21, revealed that among the age group of 18-34, 58 percent of respondents supported Trump, while only 39 percent favored Harris.
Even when pitted against President Joe Biden, Trump maintained a significant lead among the 18-34 age group. The poll showed that 54 percent of young voters would choose Trump in a hypothetical election between him and Biden, while only 37 percent would vote for the current president.
Tim Malloy, an analyst at Quinnipiac University Polling, remarked on the lack of change in support despite the Democratic ticket's reshuffling. Harris entered the race with similar numbers to Biden, indicating a potential challenge for her campaign. The poll surveyed 1,376 adults aged 18 years and older and had a margin of error of 2.6 percent.
The poll results highlight potential concerns for the Harris campaign, which launched after Biden's announcement that he would not seek reelection due to questions about his health and cognitive abilities. Biden's approval rating among young voters also dropped, partly due to his handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza. CNN reported that his disapproval rating among voters under 35 stood at 81 percent.
Interestingly, polling by CNN showed Harris outperforming Biden among young voters in a direct face-off against Trump. The Harris campaign has already reached out to Democratic-aligned youth groups such as the College Democrats of America and Voters of Tomorrow, aiming to bolster support among this crucial demographic.
According to the Quinnipiac University poll, while Trump excelled among 18-34-year-olds, Harris found more favor among those aged 65 and over. In this age range, 54 percent indicated they would vote for Harris, while 43 percent favored Trump.
This shift in support among young voters is a departure from the usual trend, where Democratic presidential candidates have traditionally dominated this demographic. Previous polling from NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist National Poll in April showed Biden leading Trump by eight points among voters aged 45 and older. However, he trailed Trump by two points among Millennial and Gen Z voters.
Similarly, a Fox News poll conducted in March revealed that Trump led Biden by six points among voters aged 65 and older, but enjoyed an 18-point lead over Biden with voters under 30.
It is worth noting that polling data may not accurately capture the voting behavior of younger generations. Phone surveys, in particular, face challenges in reaching a representative sample of young people who are less likely to answer calls. This issue was raised by Abby Kiesa, the deputy director of CIRCLE, a nonpartisan research institute on youth engagement at Tufts University.
The Quinnipiac University poll, however, conducted their survey via cell phone calls to capture a broader range of respondents. The significance of young voters' support for Trump can be understood by considering that no Republican candidate has won their favor since George H.W. Bush in 1988. Additionally, no Democrat has won the senior vote since Al Gore's focus on Social Security in 2000.
Historically, voter engagement has been a challenge among the 18-30 age group. In the 2016 election, only 13 percent of validated voters fell into this category, according to the Pew Research Center. Increasing efforts are being made by political campaigns to rally young voters, and Harris has already garnered several endorsements, including a surprising one from British popstar Charli XCX, who holds significant influence among Gen Z.
In a show of unity, shortly after Biden announced his endorsement of Harris as his replacement, her official campaign account, Kamala HQ, updated its cover photo to resemble the style of the Brat album.
The Quinnipiac University poll results serve as a reminder that young voters' opinions can have a significant impact on election outcomes. As the 2022 and 2024 election cycles approach, both the Trump and Harris camps will likely intensify their outreach to capture the support of this vital demographic.