In a major escalation of tensions, Ukraine's Western allies, including the United States, Britain, France, and Germany, have imposed new sanctions on Iran over allegations that Tehran has sent short-range ballistic missiles to Russia. The move has been vehemently denied by Iran and dismissed as "completely baseless and false," with Tehran accusing Western nations of hypocrisy.

The allegations stem from claims made by the Western allies that Iran has provided Russia with approximately 200 Fath-360 ballistic missiles, which could potentially be used in Ukraine's conflict. The Fath-360 has a range of up to 120km (75 miles) and can carry an explosive payload of up to 150kg (330lb), making it a potentially significant asset for Russia's offensive strategy on Ukrainian soil.

While the missile itself may not be a game-changer in the conflict, it could aid Russia in managing its offensive operations, allowing them to reserve their own precision-guided munitions for deeper targets within Ukraine. The Fath-360 has often been compared to the US-made HIMARS systems that Ukraine has been using against Russian forces.

The Western allies have accused Iran of violating international sanctions and the provisions of the nuclear deal signed in 2015. The United Nations Security Council Resolution 2231, which underpins the nuclear accord, restricts the export of missiles and drones with ranges exceeding 300km (186 miles) and payloads greater than 500kg (1,100lb). However, the Fath-360 falls within these limits, indicating that Iran may be treading carefully to avoid any legal implications.

Iran, while stating that it sold drones to Russia prior to the conflict, has denied the allegations of missile transfers and has criticized the latest sanctions as "economic terrorism." Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian and his cabinet, who came to power with support from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, have expressed a desire for diplomatic engagement with the West and the lifting of sanctions.

The timing of the alleged missile transfer raises questions about its strategic rationale. Experts suggest that Iran may be anticipating the delivery of advanced Russian Su-35 fighter jets and seeking deeper collaboration in areas such as space and nuclear programs. However, it remains uncertain whether these broader factors outweigh the potential risks and consequences of such a decision.

In response to the alleged escalation, the United States and the E3 (United Kingdom, France, and Germany) have further intensified sanctions on Iranian civil aviation. The E3 has vowed to designate entities and individuals involved in Iranian weapons programs, citing a "direct threat to European security." The US and the UK have blacklisted senior military commanders allegedly involved in arms exports to Russia, along with Iranian entities and Russian ships and aviation units.

The Iranian nuclear accord, which has been in limbo since the US withdrawal in 2018, has pushed Iran closer to Russia and China. Iran and Russia have collaborated in Syria for more than a decade to support the government of President Bashar al-Assad. In 2021, Iran and China signed a 25-year cooperation agreement, although no major deals have been publicly announced.

While Iran and Russia share a desire to challenge US influence, there is no formal military or economic alliance between them. Their growing cooperation poses challenges to the US and Europe, but experts caution against overstating the relationship as a formal alliance. Nonetheless, both countries appear eager to expand their collaboration, raising concerns among Western nations.