In the battleground state of Virginia, the race for presidency between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris remains too close to call, according to the latest polling data. The survey conducted by Roanoke College reveals that Harris holds a narrow lead over Trump in both two-way and multi-candidate scenarios.

In a head-to-head matchup, Harris leads with 47% of the vote, while Trump trails closely behind with 44%. When other candidates are added to the equation, Harris maintains her lead at 45% against Trump's 42%. Noteworthy contenders in this category include Robert Kennedy Jr., who secures 6% of the voting share, and both Cornel West and Libertarian Chase Oliver, each capturing 2%. Additionally, 3% of respondents prefer another candidate, with only 2% remaining undecided.

These results come as a disappointment for those who believed that Harris, compared to any other candidate in American history, would ascend to the presidency without substantial policy specifics, solely relying on aspirational rhetoric. Harry Wilson, Senior Political Analyst and Professor Emeritus at Roanoke College's Institute for Public Opinion Research, commented on the findings, stating, "The switch from Biden to Harris did make an impact in Virginia, although perhaps not as significant as some might have anticipated. While the news for Harris is certainly better than it was for Biden, her three-point lead falls within the margin of error."

Comparing these findings to the previous poll conducted in May, when President Biden and Trump were tied at 42%, it appears that if Biden had remained in the race, Trump would currently hold the advantage in Virginia. The new survey also reveals that respondents had initially planned to give Trump a 6-point lead prior to Biden's withdrawal. Moreover, some individuals who had previously intended to vote for other candidates seem to have changed their minds, while 3% stated they had not intended to vote at all in a Biden-Trump matchup.

One significant challenge for the Democratic nominee lies in winning the support of independent voters. In the multi-candidate race, Trump captures 50% of the independent vote, while Harris trails behind at 34%. The situation improves for Harris in the two-way race, but she still faces a double-digit deficit among unaligned voters, with Trump leading at 47% and Harris at 35%. However, Harris performs better among Democrats, garnering 90% support, with only 4% breaking in favor of Trump. Conversely, Trump secures the backing of 85% of Republicans, with 8% indicating they will cross party lines. In the expanded candidate field, Harris maintains a strong lead among Democrats at 88% to Trump's 3%, while Republicans choose Trump by 81% to 5%.

Roanoke polling director Harry Wilson emphasized the significance of party loyalty and the declining number of voters opting for third-party candidates. He stated, "Both candidates are polling very well within their party, and there is a minuscule number of undecided voters. The party bases remain important, as always. The number who say they will vote third party is declining, and those voters may well determine who wins in Virginia."

The survey also assessed the impact of running mates JD Vance and Tim Walz, revealing that neither choice excited Virginia voters. Dissatisfaction or anger with the selection of Walz was reported by 44% of respondents (30% dissatisfied, 14% angry), while Vance fared even worse with 32% dissatisfied and 18% angry. Walz received 64% approval among Democrats, while Vance secured a 62% approval rating among Republicans. However, both candidates struggled to gain approval from independent voters, with Walz receiving only 27% and Vance garnering 32%.

Although the presidential race in Virginia remains close, the poll highlights the lack of coattails for Trump in other contests. Incumbent Democratic Senator Tim Kaine maintains a comfortable lead over his Republican challenger, Hung Cao, with 49% to 38%. Cao's favorable rating stands at a mere 28%, while 47% disapprove of him. Even among Republican voters, his favorability rating is a lackluster 50%.

The survey conducted by the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College involved 691 likely voters between August 12 and 16. The poll has a weighted margin of error of +/- 4.5%.