In a closely watched development ahead of the 2024 presidential election, Vice President Kamala Harris has emerged as the Democratic front-runner, leading former President Donald Trump in three pivotal swing states, according to the 2024 Silver Bulletin presidential election forecast.

President Joe Biden's decision to withdraw from the race on July 21, following intraparty disputes among Democrats, paved the way for Harris to become the presumptive Democratic nominee. Biden, who endorsed Harris upon his exit, acknowledged her rising popularity and potential for success in the upcoming election.

Harris had initially trailed behind Trump in several polls prior to Biden's endorsement. However, after the President's backing, the vice president's campaign gained significant momentum, raising an impressive $310 million in July. Her campaign's TikTok account has also amassed a substantial following of 2.9 million supporters.

Recent polling data reflects the impact of Harris' campaign efforts, with her national polling average increasing by 4.4 points over the past month. According to the Silver Bulletin presidential model, Harris currently maintains a slim lead over Trump nationally, with a 45% to 43.9% advantage.

The focus on crucial swing states reveals a mixed bag of results. In Pennsylvania, Harris holds a marginal lead of 45.3% to 44.8%. The race tightens in Wisconsin, where Harris leads by 1.2 points at 46% to 44.8%. Similarly, in Michigan, Harris maintains a 2.4-point advantage, with the polling average at 45.2% to 42.8%.

Meanwhile, Trump has the upper hand in several battleground states, leading Harris in Georgia (46.3% to 44.8%), North Carolina (46.7% to 44.7%), Arizona (46.3% to 43.8%), and Nevada (43.9% to 42.6%).

While Harris has shown progress in some crucial states and nationwide, the race remains tightly contested, presenting a tossup between the two candidates. Newsweek reached out to Harris' campaign for comment, but they declined to provide a statement. Similarly, no response was received from Trump's campaign when contacted for comment.

The Silver Bulletin polling model, named in honor of renowned polling analyst Nate Silver, takes several factors into account to provide accurate averages. It adjusts for the type of voters surveyed, considers the presence of independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and accounts for house effects within polling firms that may favor one candidate over another. The model also gives greater weight to more reliable polls.

As the 2024 presidential election looms large, the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remains highly competitive, highlighting the significance of swing states and the importance of capturing the support of undecided voters.