According to the latest polling data from Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin website, Vice President Kamala Harris has taken a four-point lead over former President Donald Trump in national polling. This surge comes after independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was removed from the survey model, causing a shift in the numbers. Harris currently holds 48.8 percent of the vote, while Trump follows closely behind with 44.8 percent.

The withdrawal of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. from the presidential race has been described as peculiar by Silver. Although Trump has gained some ground following Kennedy Jr.'s exit, Harris maintains a steady lead. Her momentum was further boosted by the Democratic National Convention held in Chicago, which resulted in a significant rise in her polling numbers.

In addition to leading nationally, Harris also comes out on top in key battleground states. The Vice President leads in Arizona with 46.6 percent against Trump's 45.1 percent. She also holds the advantage in Michigan (48 percent to 44.6 percent), Pennsylvania (47.7 percent to 46 percent), and Wisconsin (48.9 percent to 45.5 percent). However, Trump manages to secure a narrow lead in Georgia, with 47.5 percent compared to Harris' 46.8 percent. The race remains highly competitive in North Carolina, where Harris stands at 46.8 percent while Trump is close behind at 46.5 percent. A similar scenario unfolds in Nevada, with Harris edging out Trump at 46.2 percent to 45 percent.

According to Silver's latest poll results, if the November election were to perfectly reflect these numbers, Harris would secure victory in the Electoral College and become the next President of the United States. Even if Trump were to win the closely contested states of Nevada and North Carolina, Harris' lead in other states would secure her the necessary electoral votes.

Newsweek has reached out to both the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment, but no response has been received as of yet. Since President Joe Biden's unexpected decision to drop out of the race on July 21 and endorse Harris, the Democratic presidential ticket has experienced a significant turnaround in the polls. Trump, who previously held the lead in all seven swing states, has witnessed a decline in support.

Harris, now the official nominee for the Democratic Party, has seen a surge in both national and swing state polling averages. She has also managed to level the playing field in betting odds markets, where Trump had held the lead since May. Nonetheless, it is worth noting that the withdrawal of Kennedy Jr. from the race could potentially impact Trump's chances with certain voters, as supporters of Kennedy Jr. are more likely to lean towards Trump's campaign.

Scott Jennings, a former adviser to President George W. Bush, expressed caution regarding Kennedy Jr.'s reputation, stating it could cost Trump some support in the upcoming election. While Kennedy Jr. has transitioned from a liberal to a conservative conspiracy theorist, his perceived association with conspiracy theories could deter some voters from supporting Trump.

As Election Day draws near, both candidates will need to navigate these shifting dynamics and strategize to secure the necessary electoral votes for victory.