According to a recent poll conducted by Fairleigh Dickinson University, Vice President Kamala Harris is leading former President Donald Trump in the upcoming presidential election by a seven-point margin. The survey, carried out from August 17 to August 20, shows Harris garnering the support of 50% of likely voters, while Trump trails behind at 43%. The remaining 7% of respondents expressed their support for another candidate.

The poll, led by Professor Dan Cassino, emphasizes the significant impact of race and gender on voter preferences. When participants were prompted to consider the race or gender of the candidates, Harris' lead over Trump expanded significantly. In situations where race and gender were not highlighted, Harris and Trump were nearly tied, with Trump slightly edging ahead at 48% to Harris' 47%. However, when the race of the candidates became salient, Harris extended her lead to 53%, with Trump lagging at 39%. Furthermore, mentioning gender also worked in Harris' favor, boosting her support to 52% compared to Trump's 42%.

The survey also sheds light on the effect of race on voter preferences. When voters were prompted to think about race, Harris witnessed a sharp rise in non-white support, with her lead over Trump increasing from 16 points to 36 points. Similarly, Harris managed to narrow the gap among white voters when race was mentioned, turning an 11-point deficit into a three-point lead.

The poll reveals that Harris enjoys strong support among men who reject traditional masculine identities, while Trump's strongest base remains men who identify as "completely masculine." Among the latter group, Trump leads Harris significantly with a margin of 64% to 30%. However, among men who identify as less traditionally masculine, support for Harris prevails at 55% compared to Trump's 35%.

Commenting on the findings, Professor Cassino stated, "Trump has built his political career around a very specific performance of whiteness and masculinity. In the past, that's been seen as a strength, but it's no longer clear that it's working." Gender dynamics also play a significant role, as the poll indicates that when the gender of the candidates is emphasized, women's support for Trump drops by seven points, further bolstering Harris' advantage.

Cassino added, "We talk about the gender gap in voting as being between men and women, but it's not. The real gender gap is between men who are holding to traditionally masculine identities and everybody else. Identity isn't just about race and sex: Trump's appeal to a traditional form of masculine identity is the only thing keeping this race close."

Conducted by Braun Research of Princeton, New Jersey, the poll utilized a voter list of registered voters nationwide. The results highlight the evolving influence of identity politics in the 2024 presidential race, indicating that factors such as race, gender, and traditional masculine identities are key considerations for voters.