US Stocks Struggle as Global Markets Thrive Amid Tariff Uncertainty
ICARO Media Group
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US stocks have faced a difficult year, with investors worldwide turning their attention elsewhere as President Trump's inconsistent tariff policies create a cloud of uncertainty. By mid-May, the S&P 500 had eked out a mere 1.2% gain, barely holding positive territory, while American stocks ranked 41st among the 47 nations in the MSCI All-Country World Index. In stark contrast, non-US stocks surged by 15.5%, led by standouts such as Mexico, up 27%, and Europe, with a 22.3% increase, including Germany's 20% rise. Chinese stocks also showed impressive growth at 19.9%, and South Korea followed with a 14.3% increase.
The tumble from former heights can largely be attributed to President Trump's vacillating approach to trade taxes, which has created substantial market instability. A 90-day reciprocal tariff pause issued on April 9 followed an earlier proclamation of "Liberation Day" on April 2. However, only two minor tariff agreements—with Britain and China—have emerged since then. Both deals are provisional and do not offer long-term consistency or security for investors. The temporary UK deal is non-binding and impacts only a limited selection of goods, while the China agreement, although slightly reducing tariffs from a prohibitive 145% to 30%, still leaves rates much higher than they were at the year's outset.
As of mid-May, Trump's trade policy took another ambiguous turn, with a promise to announce fair rates the following week and allow some countries the chance to appeal. This ongoing unpredictability has stymied American stocks while creating opportunities for illegal and legal tariff evasion. Importers have exploited under-resourced Customs and Border Protection through various means, from misclassifying goods to leveraging tactics like "tariff splitting" and "transshipping."
April's tariff collections slightly increased to $16.3 billion but fell short of White House estimates by a significant 75%. Importers are likely to expand their evasion efforts, continuing to dull the intended impact of tariffs. Meanwhile, this volatility disproportionately disadvantages the US market, injecting further uncertainty that stock investors historically despise.
The complicated tariff landscape is a challenging puzzle for analysts and a major drag on US stocks. Ironically, while America endures these economic tremors, international markets are flourishing. For now, experts suggest a patient approach, advising investors to focus on the thriving bull markets overseas.