US Stocks Set for New Highs as June Jobs Report Fuels Rate Cut Speculation

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ICARO Media Group
Politics
05/07/2024 17h51

US stocks are poised to reach new all-time highs on Friday as investors react to the June jobs report, which has increased speculation of an imminent rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The S&P 500 advanced 0.3% after hitting a record close earlier in the week, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell slightly and the Nasdaq Composite ticked up, led by gains in tech giants.

The job market showed resilience as the US economy added 206,000 jobs in June, surpassing the expected 190,000 jobs predicted by Wall Street analysts. However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.1%, its highest level since November 2021. This uptick in unemployment suggests a cooling job market, raising concerns about a potential broader economic slowdown.

Earlier labor data indicated looser conditions, further reinforcing the notion that inflation will continue to ease. This creates a favorable environment for the Federal Reserve to consider lowering interest rates from their current two-decade high. Traders are now pricing in a 75% chance of a rate cut in September, according to CME's FedWatch tool. The 10-year Treasury yield continued its slide to 4.28% during afternoon trading.

Investors are closely scrutinizing the jobs data to decipher whether the slowdown in monthly job growth reflects a return to normalcy in the labor market following the pandemic or if it indicates early signs of an economic slowdown.

The recent UK election, which saw the Labour Party winning by a landslide, has also drawn investor attention. With the US presidential election approaching, key donors are urging President Joe Biden to step aside, highlighting the growing lead of Donald Trump in the polls and its potential implications for the markets.

On the corporate front, Samsung Electronics reported a quarterly profit that surged to 15 times its size compared to a year ago. This propelled the stock to a three-year high, driven by the AI boom. However, crypto-linked stocks like Coinbase Global and Marathon Digital saw losses in morning trading as bitcoin sank to its lowest level against the dollar since February.

In afternoon trading, stocks showed mixed movement. The S&P 500 remained relatively stable, the Dow Jones slipped slightly, and the Nasdaq Composite continued to rise, fueled by the strength of tech giants.

Tesla's stock continued its winning streak, rising as much as 1.1% during morning trading. The company has experienced a remarkable rally, gaining almost 40% in the past month. Positive quarterly results and the anticipation around the upcoming robotaxi unveiling have contributed to the stock's recent performance. Tesla's quarterly report is scheduled for July 23, while the robotaxi unveiling will take place on August 8.

Macy's shares surged nearly 10% following reports that an investor group has proposed a higher offer to purchase the troubled department store chain. Samsung Electronics also saw gains of 3% after reporting a significant increase in quarterly profit, thanks to the AI boom.

As investors digest the June jobs report, the Federal Reserve is under increasing pressure to take action. The report's higher unemployment rate and other labor market indicators signal the need for the Fed to potentially cut rates in order to address the challenges faced by workers. Analysts like Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro believe that the Fed should be more forceful in cutting rates this fall.

Overall, the market's positive reaction to the June jobs report suggests that investors are buoyed by the prospect of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. This optimism, coupled with corporate earnings releases and ongoing geopolitical developments, will continue to shape the trajectory of the stock market in the coming weeks.

The views expressed in this article do not reflect the opinion of ICARO, or any of its affiliates.

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