In the latest round of New York Times/Siena College state polls, President Donald Trump is holding a narrow lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in two key southern battleground states. The surveys show Trump ahead by 4 points in Georgia and 2 points in North Carolina, within the margin of error. This comes as Democrats are attempting to tie Trump to the scandal-plagued GOP nominee for governor in North Carolina, Mark Robinson, in an effort to undermine Trump's standing in the state.

The findings are intriguing considering Georgia has seen larger Democratic gains compared to North Carolina in recent years. Despite having similar demographics, Georgia has had a net shift of 5.4 points away from the GOP from 2016 to 2020, while North Carolina saw a shift of 2.3 points. The discrepancy in Trump's polling numbers between the two states has raised questions about potential polling errors, especially among white voters without four-year college degrees.

Exit polling from 2020 showed that Trump won the noncollege white vote in both Georgia and North Carolina by a significant margin. If polling is again underestimating Trump's support among this demographic group, it could explain why Trump appears to be better positioned in Georgia than in North Carolina. The possibility of a polling miss is reminiscent of the errors seen in northern battleground states in the past two presidential elections. If this trend persists, it could have significant implications for the upcoming election in both the Sun Belt and northern states.