In a surprising turn of events, former President Donald Trump has surged ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in a closely-watched national poll, casting doubt on Harris' momentum just before their highly anticipated debate. According to the latest New York Times/Siena College poll, Trump narrowly leads Harris among likely voters by 48% to 47%.

This poll reflects the findings from late July when Trump held a lead over Harris shortly after President Biden dropped out of the race. Several other recent polls have also shown the 45th president gaining ground against his rival in the weeks following the Democratic National Convention.

Nevertheless, it is noteworthy that despite Trump's lead, a significant majority of voters (70%) and even a notable portion of his own supporters (37%) found some of his statements offensive. In contrast, Harris had experienced a surge in the polls across the board after being elevated to the top of the Democratic ticket, overtaking Trump in the RealClearPolitics aggregate of polling. However, the battleground state polls still remain uncertain.

The poll also delved into specific issues where voters expressed their trust in either candidate. Harris gained an edge over Trump on issues such as abortion (54% to 49%) and democracy (50% to 45%). Conversely, the majority of voters trusted the 45th president more on the economy (55% to 42%) and immigration (53% to 43%).

The top concerns for voters were found to be the economy (21%), abortion (14%), immigration (12%), inflation and the cost of living (7%), as well as democracy (7%). Notably, Democrats appeared to have a slight edge over Republicans in terms of enthusiasm, with 91% of Democrats expressing enthusiasm compared to 85% of Republicans.

The poll also highlighted that a significant proportion of respondents (56%) did not believe that Harris represented a change from the current and somewhat unpopular Biden administration. Only 25% considered her a symbol of major change, while 15% saw her as representing minor change. In contrast, 51% believed that Trump signified major change, 10% believed in minor change, and 35% viewed him as more of the same.

Political strategists, including James Carville, have emphasized the importance of positioning oneself as the candidate of change, which is seen as a crucial factor for victory. Carville recently suggested that Harris should publicly break away from Biden on major policy issues to establish her own distinctive platform.

In terms of public approval ratings, Trump's ratings have slightly dipped, with 46% of respondents viewing him favorably, compared to 52% who held an unfavorable view. Harris, on the other hand, trailed Trump slightly, with a favorability rating of 45% and an unfavorable rating of 50%. It is worth noting that there has been a decrease in Trump's favorability compared to July's poll results.

Nate Silver, an election data expert, pondered the significance of the recent poll and emphasized the upcoming debate as a potential turning point for both candidates. Silver's 2024 election forecast currently gives Trump higher odds of winning the Electoral College, although Harris is favored to win the popular vote. It is noteworthy that Republicans have not won the popular vote for president since 2004.

The much-anticipated debate between Trump and Harris is set to take place on Tuesday and will be hosted by ABC News in Philadelphia. This will mark the first in-person meeting between the two candidates. With just eight weeks remaining until the November 5th election, this debate has the potential to shake up the perceived tossup race for the presidency.