Trump Campaign Sets Sights on Flipping Minnesota and Virginia in November Elections

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ICARO Media Group
Politics
04/05/2024 22h45

In a closed-door meeting at a Republican National Committee retreat held at the Four Seasons resort in Palm Beach, Florida, top officials from former President Donald Trump's campaign revealed their strategy to flip the Democratic strongholds of Minnesota and Virginia in the upcoming November elections. The campaign's pollster, Tony Fabrizio, together with senior advisers Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita, presented internal surveys to donors, focusing on finances, messaging, and the political map.

According to Fabrizio's numbers, which were shared on a slide with NBC News, Trump currently holds small leads over President Joe Biden in key swing states from the 2020 election, including Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia. Building on these gains, the Trump campaign believes there is a real opportunity to expand the electoral map into Minnesota and Virginia, traditionally Democratic strongholds.

While the Biden camp has expressed interest in targeting North Carolina and Florida, which have been historically Republican, LaCivita dismisses these assertions as a "faux game." He claims that the Trump campaign has a genuine chance to make significant inroads in Virginia and Minnesota.

The internal polling, shared with donors, aligns relatively well with limited public surveys. It shows Biden with a slight edge in Virginia, while Trump's polling data in Minnesota contradicts public surveys in that state. However, all the public polls, as well as Trump's campaign trials, fall within the margin of error, indicating that both states could be highly competitive.

To test the electoral landscape, Trump's team conducted head-to-head, four-way, and six-way races. In Minnesota's six-way trial, which included four independent candidates, Trump and Biden were tied at 40%, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 9%. When the field was narrowed to four candidates, Trump led Biden by 46% to 41%. In a head-to-head matchup, Trump maintained a lead of 49% to 46% over Biden.

In Virginia, the internal survey showed Biden leading Trump 40% to 37% in a six-way test, including Kennedy at 8%. A head-to-head matchup gave Biden a 48% to 44% advantage over Trump, while in a four-way race, Biden had a 42% to 41% lead over Trump.

Trump campaign aides declined to release the full surveys and their methodology to NBC News. This strategic move aligns with campaigns often using the promise of playing offense in new territories to motivate donors to contribute financially.

Biden campaign spokeswoman Lauren Hitt responded to the Trump campaign's claims by highlighting the stark differences in campaign infrastructure. While Biden has established 150 offices with hundreds of staff across key battleground states, the RNC is reportedly closing offices and spending significant amounts on legal fees. Hitt also emphasized Biden's active presence in battlegrounds, contrasting it with Trump's appearances in courtrooms or on the golf course. The true test of these strategies will be seen in November.

As the November elections draw nearer, Trump's campaign remains optimistic about its chances of flipping Minnesota and Virginia and expanding its base beyond traditionally Republican territories. Both states have been Democratic strongholds for several election cycles, but with the political landscape continuously evolving, nothing can be ruled out until the final ballots are cast.

The views expressed in this article do not reflect the opinion of ICARO, or any of its affiliates.

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