Trump Administration's Economic Policies Could Impact Personal Finances Significantly
ICARO Media Group
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As President-elect Donald Trump gears up to take office on January 20, his promises to reduce consumer prices, make health care more affordable, and protect Social Security loom large. Voter concerns about the economy significantly contributed to his victory, with CNN exit polls indicating that 68% of voters rated the economy as poor or not good. Trump's ability to fulfill his economic promises will largely hinge on Congressional approval.
One of the key reforms Trump touted on the campaign trail involved expanding the child tax credit. This credit, which offers financial relief to parents, was initially increased from $1,000 to $2,000 by the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. This expansion is set to expire at the end of 2025, but Trump might either seek to extend it or unveil a new initiative, contingent on Congress's approval. Notably, Vice President-elect JD Vance has proposed expanding the child tax credit to $5,000, although Trump has yet to comment on this idea.
Trump's administration is also expected to focus on extending the tax cuts introduced in 2017, which would lower taxes by an average of $2,000 in 2026 if extended. However, nearly half of these benefits would benefit the top 5% of households who earn over $450,000. For instance, households in the top 1% could save about $70,000, or 3.2% of their income, while middle-income families might save approximately $1,000, or 1.3% of their income.
Besides tax cuts, Trump has floated the idea of eliminating federal income tax and replacing it with revenue from tariffs. Nevertheless, Alan Auerbach, an economics professor at UC Berkeley, argued that this notion is financially unfeasible since tariff revenue cannot substitute for income taxes.
Trump's policy platform also insists on not cutting Social Security benefits. However, he has proposed removing federal taxes on Social Security, tips, and overtime pay, which may offer short-term relief but could diminish the funds for Social Security, potentially curtailing benefits for future workers. According to the Tax Policy Center, eliminating these taxes might lead Social Security fund reserves to deplete by 2031, resulting in a 33% reduction in benefits by 2035.
In terms of student loans, Trump's stance remains crucial as key aspects of President Joe Biden's debt forgiveness initiatives hang in the balance. While some of Biden's efforts have been blocked by the Supreme Court, experts like Auerbach believe that the Trump administration might not show an interest in providing student loan relief. Trump has not addressed student loan debt in his policy plans, and his past efforts to terminate the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program were also unsuccessful.
Concerns about inflation remain pertinent as inflation climbed to 2.6% in October, marking the first increase in six months. Trump's proposed 10% to 20% tariffs on imports could push up everyday consumer prices, with items like $90 athletic shoes potentially costing between $106 and $116. Additionally, Trump's plan for mass deportations might exacerbate food prices by creating labor shortages in agriculture and food processing sectors, areas often staffed by undocumented immigrants.
Auerbach suggests that Trump's plans for tariffs and mass deportations could have significant ramifications on personal finances. As Trump prepares to deliver on his campaign promises, Americans are closely watching how these policies will unfold and affect their economic realities.