**Ukraine's Kursk Incursion: A Strategic Stalemate Enters Third Month**

In a historic and surprising twist in the ongoing conflict, Ukraine's incursion into Russia's Kursk region is now entering its third month. This operation marked the first time foreign troops have entered Russian territory since World War II, causing considerable embarrassment for the Kremlin and showcasing Ukraine's military capabilities to its global supporters.

Despite the initial momentum, Ukraine's advance has stalled as neither side has made significant gains or mounted major counterattacks in recent days. Analysts suggest that Kyiv aims to leverage this incursion as both a morale boost and a potential bargaining chip, while Russian President Vladimir Putin seeks to minimize the incident and limit the resources allocated to countering it.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in Washington, DC, reports that Ukraine maintains a foothold of about 786 square kilometers (300 square miles) in Kursk. Dmytro, a commander of a Ukrainian battalion in Kursk known by the call sign "Kholod," described the current situation: "Russian advances are mostly happening on the flanks of our foothold. They keep trying to advance but the gains are incremental; somewhere they manage to take a street in a village. But it goes both ways—we also counterattack and push them back."

Ukraine's main stronghold is near the Russian town of Sudzha, with efforts to establish another foothold around the Veseloe village. The number of Ukrainian troops in the region remains undisclosed.

On the Russian side, an estimated 40,000 troops have been deployed to defend and counterattack in Kursk. Initially, these forces were composed of conscripts and reservists, described by analyst Mark Galeotti as akin to “scramping around your sofa cushions to find some small change.” Recently, however, Moscow has deployed more experienced forces, although the allocation of resources remains less than many Russian civilians in Kursk might desire.

The fighting has displaced over 100,000 civilians, and many of those remaining are now living behind Ukrainian lines. Galeotti notes that while the Kursk operation has somewhat normalized, it remains vital not to mistake this for acceptance. Putin’s strategy appears to involve minimizing the impact on Russia’s broader invasion efforts in Ukraine by downplaying the significance of the incursion.

Putin's government has characterized the incursion as a mere "raid" and framed their response as a "counterterrorism mission." This downplaying strategy seems to have resonated with parts of the Russian public. As one military blogger pointed out, “Most of Russia has already got used to the fighting near Kursk.”

Despite the stalled frontlines, fierce combat continues, with significant use of drones, barrel artillery, and aerial bombers by Russian forces. Ukrainian battalion commander "Kholod" mentioned that Russia does not hesitate to use heavy bombardments even on suspected troop locations.

The ultimate goals of Ukraine’s operation likely include demonstrating the vulnerability of Russian forces and challenging the limits of their military power. Analyst John Lough notes that the incursion sends a clear message to Ukraine’s Western allies regarding Russia's vulnerabilities and rhetorical "red lines."

Although the incursion has not succeeded in diverting Russian troops from other critical frontlines in eastern Ukraine, it could still serve as a crucial bargaining tool in any future negotiations. With the primary focus of the war remaining on the eastern Donbas region, both sides continue to intensify their operations under the looming threat of worsening weather conditions.