Stock Market Performance in 2024 Presidential Election Appears Unaffected, Experts Say

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ICARO Media Group
Politics
23/05/2024 19h49

According to a panel of political experts speaking at CNBC's Financial Advisor Summit, the stock market's performance during the 2024 presidential election seems to be largely unaffected by the political landscape. David Woo, CEO of research firm Unbound, noted that despite the upcoming election being one of the most consequential and contentious in the past century, the market is not currently trading with the election in mind.

A recent analysis by U.S. Bank Wealth Management supports this observation, stating that historically, potential election outcomes have had minimal impact on the financial market performance in the medium and long term. This suggests that investors need not be overly concerned about the election's influence on the stock market.

Interestingly, Woo highlighted that 2024 is turning out to be an exception to the typical trend. He explained that the S&P 500 has already seen a 12% increase this year, making it the best-performing year for the index in an election year since the 1980 election. Looking further back, data from J.P. Morgan Private Bank shows that the S&P 500 has historically returned an average of 7.5% in presidential election years.

While election years often see a dip in stock market performance leading up to the voting day, Woo emphasized that the current year is different. He attributed this divergence to the unique circumstances surrounding the 2024 election.

Woo also pointed out that the focus of this election is likely to be on international issues rather than domestic concerns. He noted that both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump will inherit a significant budget deficit of $1 trillion, indicating that the next president will face a major challenge. In terms of fiscal policy, Woo stated that he doesn't anticipate a massive difference between the two candidates.

When discussing how the election could impact specific market sectors, Woo highlighted potential implications for defense and energy stocks. He suggested that defense stocks could thrive under a Biden administration, while emerging markets might see a bullish trend under a Trump administration. Woo also challenged the notion that Trump's presidency would be bullish for energy stocks, arguing that it was actually during Biden's presidency that energy stocks experienced a boost due to geopolitical risks.

Meanwhile, National Political Correspondent Steve Kornacki mentioned that polls indicate a tight race with Trump leading Biden by 1.1 points nationally. Kornacki noted that Trump has made gains among Hispanic and African American voters, as well as younger nonwhite voters.

Although uncertain election outcomes have historically led to market volatility, financial experts advise against making investment decisions solely based on the election. Douglas A. Boneparth, a certified financial planner, stressed that as advisors, their decisions should not be influenced by politics. Instead, investors should remain focused on their long-term strategies, as the stock market has performed well under both administrations.

As the 2024 presidential election approaches, it will be interesting to see how the stock market responds to the outcome. However, the consensus among experts is that investors should maintain a long-term perspective and not let political uncertainty sway their investment strategies.

In the end, while the election may have implications for specific sectors, the overall performance of the stock market seems to be driven by factors beyond the immediate political landscape.

The views expressed in this article do not reflect the opinion of ICARO, or any of its affiliates.

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