### Middle East Anticipates Potential Impacts of a Second Trump Presidency

As leaders from numerous Arab and Islamic nations convene in Riyadh for a critical summit, discussions are abuzz with speculation regarding the potential influence of a second Donald Trump presidency on the region.

Unlike the anxiety his unpredictability stirs in Europe, Gulf Arab nations view Trump as a stabilizing force. Prominent UAE businessman Khalaf al-Habtoor, writing in an Arab News opinion column, underscores Trump's emphasis on strengthening alliances and curbing extremism, calling it a promising path forward for a region where security is paramount.

In Saudi Arabia, Trump is held in higher regard than his successor, Joe Biden. Trump made Riyadh his first international destination as President in 2017, a move reportedly facilitated by Rupert Murdoch. His favorable ties with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), largely through Jared Kushner, have also bolstered his popularity. Conversely, Biden's remarks about turning Saudi Arabia into a "pariah" over its human rights record have left a lasting impression on MBS.

Trump's policies in the Middle East have had mixed reactions. His recognition of Jerusalem as Israel's capital and acceptance of Israel's annexation of the Golan Heights irked many in the Arab world but pleased Israel. However, he also facilitated the Abraham Accords in 2020, leading to historic diplomatic relations between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco, with Sudan also agreeing to follow suit.

Trump's tenure was marked by a hawkish stance on Iran. In 2018, he withdrew the US from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), decrying it as the "worst deal in history" and echoing the concerns of many regional governments about Iran's ballistic missile program and its funding of proxy militias. In 2020, he ordered the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, a move lauded by many Gulf Arab states but condemned by Iran.

The geopolitical landscape of the Middle East has shifted since Trump left office. Israel is currently engaged in conflicts with Hamas, Hezbollah, and has clashed with Houthi rebels in Yemen and their Iranian backers. Many perceive the Biden administration's influence in the region as diminished, particularly in its strained efforts to restrain Israel amid the ongoing wars in Gaza and Lebanon. Some believe Trump's potential return could embolden Israel to take more aggressive actions against Iran, targeting key infrastructure like oil and nuclear facilities.

Former Israeli intelligence officer Joshua Steinrich asserts that Trump's unwavering support for Israel and confrontational stance towards Iran made him a vital ally in the region. His possible return is expected to intensify efforts to counter Iran's influence.

Meanwhile, the region itself has not remained static. In a significant development brokered by China, Saudi Arabia and Iran have agreed to end seven years of hostility, marked most visibly by the conflict in Yemen. Recently, Saudi Arabia's military chief visited Tehran to discuss deepening defense and security cooperation, illustrating a notable thaw in relations.

As the summit calls for an end to the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, leaders are optimistic yet cautious about the implications of a potential second Trump presidency on the Middle East. The discussions also extend to broader issues, including the challenges posed by migration in Europe.