In a bid to regain control over parts of Kursk that were lost to Ukrainian forces, Russia has launched a counteroffensive, but its momentum is yet to pick up. Last month, Ukraine took the world by surprise with its cross-border assault, capturing numerous settlements. However, experts have expressed skepticism about Ukraine's ability to maintain its gains. As of now, Russian units have managed to retake a few villages, but the situation remains fluid and details about the Russian troop presence are hazy.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has acknowledged the start of Russia's counteroffensive and shared plans to deploy 60,000 to 70,000 troops in the Kursk region. Despite this, Zelensky stated that the Russians have not achieved any significant successes yet, highlighting the resilience of the Ukrainian soldiers on the ground. The US Defense Department, assessing the situation, described the Russian actions so far as "marginal" and noted the absence of a substantial or high-quality force that could quickly drive out the smaller Ukrainian contingent.

While some of Russia's elite units, such as the 51st Airborne Regiment, have been identified participating in the counteroffensive through geolocated videos, it is believed that the majority of Russian forces in Kursk lack combat experience. Initial indications suggest that the Russian strategy may involve cutting off Ukrainian troops near the town of Korenevo before launching a larger-scale counteroffensive operation.

Reports indicate that the Russians have managed to recapture a two-kilometer area at the western edge of the zone initially seized by the Ukrainians. The situation seems to have stabilized, but fierce fighting is ongoing in a neighboring village. Despite the ongoing conflict, Ukrainian units may be developing a new assault route near the town of Veseloe, possibly as a distraction tactic.

Experts highlight that Ukraine's strategy in launching surprise offensives across the border aims to engage in guerrilla warfare and exhaust the Russian forces. President Zelensky remains steadfast in his belief that the incursion into Kursk is necessary and valuable, as it has slowed down Russian advances in eastern Donetsk, particularly in the threatened city of Pokrovsk. Russian President Vladimir Putin seeks to further expand his control over four eastern Ukrainian regions that are already partially under his influence.

Zelensky revealed that the Kursk operation has cut down Russia's advantage in artillery ammunition in the Pokrovsk area, attributing this to the campaign's success. The situation has resulted in a temporary halt in Russia's ambitions to retrieve lost territories, as the focus remains on making progress in Donetsk. Ukraine has offered multiple reasons for the Kursk operation, including forcing Russia to redeploy troops from the frontlines, acquiring negotiable land, challenging Putin's red lines, and creating a pool of prisoners-of-war for exchange.

With the ongoing conflict, Ukraine's immediate priorities are strengthening defensive lines in the east, expediting the formation of new units, and developing longer-range strike capabilities to target Russian infrastructure. Ukrainian authorities are also seeking greater freedom to employ precision western missiles in strikes deep within Russian territory, specifically aiming to neutralize airfields from which guided aerial bombs (FABs) are launched.

While the international community, including UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, has expressed support for Ukraine's fight for freedom, the Biden Administration remains cautious about any escalation that could directly involve NATO. The Kursk incursion may push Ukraine to adopt new strategies that could fundamentally change its approach to the conflict. The goal is to exploit vulnerabilities, force Russia into over-extension, create chaos, encircle Russian forces, and capture their equipment. The ultimate determination lies in how Ukraine can influence Putin's decision-making, whether through actions in Kursk or by conducting deeper strikes inside Russia.

As the conflict continues, it remains to be seen how the situation will unfold and whether Ukraine's moves in Kursk will bring about the desired outcomes or lead to further escalation.