### Historian Allan Lichtman Predicts Kamala Harris Will Edge Out Donald Trump in 2024 Election

Renowned historian Allan Lichtman has reiterated his bold prediction for the 2024 presidential race, positing a narrow victory for Vice President Kamala Harris over former President Donald Trump. Lichtman, recognized for his accurate forecasting of nine out of the last ten presidential elections, remains confident in his prognostication methods.

In contrast to fellow election analyst Nate Silver, Lichtman criticized Silver's reliance on poll compilations which he deemed unreliable. Silver recently remarked on X (formerly known as Twitter) that the outcome of the presidential race might ultimately come down to luck, emphasizing the variability introduced even after running 80,000 election simulations.

Silver’s forecast, despite his own reservations, aligns with Lichtman's, showing Harris barely surpassing Trump by winning 40,012 out of 80,000 simulations. Nonetheless, Lichtman strongly backs his "13 Keys to the White House" prediction system, which he has used successfully since 1984, with his only miss being the 2000 election between George W. Bush and Al Gore.

Lichtman highlighted the fragile state of democracy in his recent comments, reflecting on the historical rarity of democratic governance. "For the vast sweep of human history, there has been almost no democracy," Lichtman explained in a live interview on YouTube, emphasizing the novelty and delicateness of democratic systems.

Despite his confidence in his model, Lichtman admitted to feeling particularly anxious about this election cycle. He shared, "I've been doing this for 42 years and every four years I have butterflies in my stomach. This year, I think I have a flock of crows in my stomach."

Lichtman’s prediction system, known as the "13 Keys to the White House," has been a cornerstone of his forecasting methodology, contributing to his distinguished track record in political predictions.