### Pennsylvania Poll Shows Tight Race Between Trump and Harris

A recent poll from Muhlenberg College/Morning Call highlights the tight contest between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania. Conducted from September 16 to 19, the survey of 450 likely voters has both candidates evenly matched at 48%. This is consistent with the RealClearPolitics polling average for the state, where Harris holds a marginal lead of 0.6%.

Harris has an edge among independent voters with a 5% lead. However, Trump is converting a higher number of voters who supported Joe Biden in 2020 than Harris is drawing from Trump's supporters. Trump retains 97% of his 2020 base and attracts 6% of Biden’s former voters. In contrast, Harris holds 92% of Biden's backers and garners 2% from those who voted for Trump last election cycle. This dynamic contributes to Harris's slight underperformance compared to Biden’s 1.17% victory margin in Pennsylvania during 2020.

One potential factor in Harris's performance could be her decision to not select Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro as her running mate. Shapiro enjoys a favorable rating of 59% against a disapproval of 27%. Previous polling from Emerson College indicated that 40% of Pennsylvania voters preferred Shapiro as Harris's vice-presidential choice, but Harris ultimately selected Minnesota Governor Tim Walz. The impact of this decision remains unclear, as evidenced by a recent poll showing a tight race in Walz's home state of Minnesota, where Harris leads Trump by just 5 points.

Amid this close presidential race, the poll also shows Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey with a slight advantage over his Republican opponent, David McCormick. Casey holds a 4-point lead at 46% to 42%, factoring in undecided voters and those supporting other candidates. When leaners are included, Casey's edge increases to 48% over McCormick’s 43%. Despite this, a significant portion of voters remains undecided, with 16% still not choosing between the two candidates and 50% uncertain.

Overall, these findings reflect a highly competitive political landscape in Pennsylvania as the presidential race heats up, with key figures like Harris, Trump, and Casey closely watched by voters and analysts alike.