In a significant display of Russia's continued strategic sway over its southern neighbor, President Vladimir V. Putin arrived in Mongolia on Monday for his first state visit to a member of the International Criminal Court (ICC). Despite an arrest warrant issued by the ICC in March 2023, accusing Putin of "unlawful deportation" and transfer of Ukrainian children to Russia, Mongolia, heavily dependent on Russia for fuel, appeared unlikely to detain the Russian president.

Addressing concerns over the possibility of an arrest, Kremlin spokesman Dmitri S. Peskov asserted, "There are no worries, we have a great dialogue with our friends from Mongolia." He further emphasized that all aspects of the visit were thoroughly prepared. Putin's visit serves as a symbolic victory for him, according to Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, while highlighting Mongolia's prioritization of its relationship with Moscow over its obligations as an ICC member.

During the visit, President Putin was greeted by what appeared to be a Mongolian military guard at the airport, signaling his comfort in the country. The invitation extended by Mongolia's President, Ukhnaa Khurelsukh, and Putin's successful defiance of the ICC arrest warrant, highlight Russia's continued influence in the region.

The International Criminal Court, based in The Hague, issued arrest warrants last year for both President Putin and Russia's Commissioner for Children's Rights, Maria Lvova-Belova. However, as Russia is not a signatory to the ICC, it has consistently rejected the court's authority.

Mongolia, a landlocked democracy situated between Russia and China, delicately balances its political alliances with its two more powerful neighbors. While the country seeks to alleviate geopolitical pressure by engaging with Western leaders, it remains economically reliant on Russia as it receives 95 percent of its fuel supply from the giant gas-producing neighbor. It strives to maintain steady relations with Moscow to balance its ties with Beijing, which heavily influences Mongolia by purchasing the majority of its commodity exports.

Munkhnaran Bayarlkhagva, an independent geopolitical analyst and former member of Mongolia's National Security Council, explains that hosting President Putin helps ensure predictable relations with Moscow, allowing the country to manage any potential fallout afterwards. The decision was likely influenced by South Africa's precedent of defying ICC arrest warrants during Sudan's President Omar al-Bashir's visit in 2015.

However, human rights watchdogs criticize Mongolia's decision, asserting that welcoming President Putin undermines the principle that no one, regardless of power, is above the law. The ruling Mongolian People's Party has long-standing ties with Russia, dating back to the establishment of Mongolia's socialist republic with the support of the Soviet Red Army.

President Putin's visit, commemorating the 85th anniversary of the Soviet and Mongolian armies' victory over Japanese forces at the Battle of Khalkhin Gol, provides an "ideological boost" for the Mongolian People's Party, asserts Bayarlkhagva.

No announcements are expected regarding the proposed Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, which would redirect Russian gas supplies to China via Mongolia. Mongolia's parliament recently excluded the pipeline from its budget for the next four years, indicating low expectations for its construction. The Mongolian government has also engaged with Western envoys, explaining the need for increased fuel and electricity supplies from Russia to prevent winter shortages.

President Putin's state visit to Mongolia highlights the enduring influence that Russia holds over its southern neighbor, despite international arrest warrants and geopolitical pressures. This visit serves as a reminder of the importance Mongolia places on maintaining its relationship with Moscow.

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