### Pollsters Criticize Pennsylvania Election Survey for Underrepresenting Philadelphia Voters

Polling experts are raising alarms over the findings of a recent Pennsylvania election survey, highlighting a significant underrepresentation of likely voters from Philadelphia. The American Greatness/TIPP survey, which polled 1,079 registered voters in this pivotal state, reported Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 4 points (49 percent to 45). However, among a smaller subset of 803 likely voters, Trump is shown to have a narrow lead over Harris with 49 percent to 48.

The implications of winning Pennsylvania in the November election are immense. As a key battleground state, it could be the deciding factor in the 2024 presidential race. Surveys frequently depict Pennsylvania as a tied state, underlining its critical role. Harris' strategy for a clear win in November involves securing the blue wall states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. For Trump, an optimal path to securing 270 Electoral College votes involves succeeding in swing states like North Carolina and Georgia, along with flipping Pennsylvania.

Despite the American Greatness/TIPP survey suggesting a tight race, pollsters have criticized its methodology, particularly the undercounting of respondents from Philadelphia. Data from the survey indicates that only 12 of the 807 likely voters sampled were from Philadelphia, making up roughly 1.5 percent of the likely voter sample, compared to 124 registered voters from the city, which accounts for around 11 percent of the total sample.

Polling experts have voiced their concerns, highlighting that the exclusion of a significant number of Philadelphia voters skews the data. Lakshya Jain, cofounder of Split Ticket, pointed out that eliminating Philadelphia respondents from a Pennsylvania poll is misleading. Adam Carlson, a former pollster, emphasized that a 5-point discrepancy between registered and likely voters is unusual, attributing it to an imbalance in Philadelphia's representation.

Garrett Herrin, publisher at polling aggregator VoteHub, announced that TIPP's Pennsylvania survey would be excluded from their polling averages for Harris and Trump. Herrin suggested there was likely an error in the pollster's tabulation or reporting. Philadelphia, home to over 1.5 million people, is a Democratic stronghold where Biden secured 81 percent of the vote in 2020.

Further supporting the claims, Daniel Nichanian, editor-in-chief of Bolts, relayed a conversation with a TIPP representative who confirmed there was no error, attributing the low likelihood to vote among surveyed individuals in Philadelphia to the poll’s screening criteria. Currently, FiveThirtyEight's polling aggregator shows Harris leading Trump in Pennsylvania by 0.6 points, while Decision Desk HQ/The Hill forecasts a 52 percent chance of Harris winning the state.