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Poland is witnessing a historic presidential runoff as citizens decide between two candidates with starkly different visions for their nation's future. Voters are casting their ballots in a tightly contested race between Rafał Trzaskowski, the pro-European mayor of Warsaw, and Karol Nawrocki, a historian and former amateur boxer supported by the populist-right Law and Justice (PiS) party.

Despite the largely ceremonial nature of the Polish presidency, the role still wields significant influence over foreign and defense policies and holds the crucial power to veto legislation. A veto can only be overturned by a three-fifths majority in parliament, a threshold that the current government does not meet. The election's outcome is critical for the governing coalition led by Donald Tusk, seeking to advance its reforms in rule of law and social issues, such as abortion and LGBTQ rights.

A victory for Trzaskowski would likely facilitate the government's efforts to implement these reforms, ending 18 months of challenging cohabitation with opposition president Andrzej Duda. On the other hand, a win for Nawrocki, endorsed by PiS, would prolong the legislative deadlock, complicating major reform efforts until the next parliamentary election in 2027. According to Prof. Aleks Szczerbiak from the University of Sussex, Tusk's administration risks becoming ineffective if Nawrocki secures the presidency.

In the lead-up to today's vote, both candidates aggressively courted supporters of those eliminated in the first round. Analysts suggest that as few as 200,000 votes could determine the outcome. Polls indicate that the race is too close to call, with the difference between the two candidates within the margin of error, making it the tightest contest in Poland's post-1989 history.

As electoral silence descended on Poland on Friday, new campaigning and polling were prohibited, giving voters 24 hours to ponder their decision after a grueling campaign period. Trzaskowski, an Oxford-educated politician with a history of ministerial roles and a stint in the European Parliament, positioned himself as a pragmatic partner for progressive government reforms. However, he faced challenges related to his association with the unpopular Tusk government and allegations of receiving foreign funding for online advertising.

Nawrocki, who has led the Institute of National Remembrance since 2021, brought a fresh face to PiS' polarizing legacy. Despite public endorsements from influential figures like US President Donald Trump and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, his campaign was marred by controversies, including questions about his past property dealings and involvement in a large-scale fight during his youth.

The implications of Nawrocki’s potential win could extend beyond domestic politics. He has taken a critical stance on Ukrainian membership in NATO, which might influence Poland's previously supportive position toward Ukraine.

Polls are set to close at 9pm local time, with exit polls to follow. However, given the race's tight nature, the final result might not be clear until official results start trickling in overnight.