New Poll Shows Kamala Harris Maintains Lead in Presidential Race Despite Debate Results

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ICARO Media Group
Politics
15/09/2024 21h33

In a recent ABC News/Ipsos survey conducted after the highly anticipated debate between Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, results revealed that while voters believed Harris outperformed Trump, it did not significantly impact her standing in the race. 58% of respondents felt that Harris came out on top during the showdown, compared to 36% who believed Trump was the winner. However, the poll also indicated little change in Harris' lead among likely voters, with her maintaining a margin of 52% to 46% over Trump, reflecting consistent numbers from August.

The survey showed minimal variations when considering all respondents, with Harris leading 51% to 46% compared to her August numbers of 50% to 46%. Among solely registered voters, Harris received 51% of the support, while Trump garnered 47%, slightly higher than his August figures of 50% to 46%. These findings indicate that overall, Harris's debate performance did not substantially shift the race in either candidate's favor.

Comparing this debate to a previous one in June, where Trump faced off against President Joe Biden, it marks a sharp reversal for Trump. In the June match, Trump was seen as the winner by 66% of viewers, while only 28% believed Biden came out on top. However, Biden eventually withdrew from the race due to a poor showing. The September debate resulted in 95% of Democrats viewing Harris as the victor, while 75% of Republicans believed Trump performed better. Within each candidate's support base, 78% of Trump's supporters deemed him the winner, while 97% of Harris's backers viewed her as triumphant.

The debate proved to be a boon for Harris among Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents, with 69% claiming that it helped them view her more favorably. Conversely, only 34% of Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents reported the same positive effect from Trump's performance. Throughout the verbal joust, Harris strategically targeted Trump, provoking him with jabs about his crowd sizes and past indictments.

The controversy surrounding the debate extended to concerns about the moderators' handling of the event. Trump and his allies criticized ABC News for intervening and fact-checking him but not applying the same scrutiny to Harris. In response, Trump has ruled out participating in another debate, asserting his victory in the September 10th encounter and highlighting polls that portrayed him as the winner.

Looking ahead, there is one more major political debate scheduled for this election cycle, an October 1st showdown between GOP vice presidential nominee JD Vance and Democratic vice presidential nominee Tim Walz, hosted by CBS News. Current aggregated polling data from RealClearPolitics indicates that Harris holds a 1.9 percentage point lead over Trump in a multi-candidate matchup, with other candidates only polling at 1% or less.

During the debate, pop star Taylor Swift endorsed Harris for president, fulfilling the dreams of many Harris supporters. However, only 6% of voters indicated that Swift's endorsement would make them more likely to back Harris, while 13% stated it would make them less likely, and 81% claimed it would have no impact on their decision.

On the demographic front, Harris continued to show strength among female, black, Hispanic, and young voters. Likely female voters favored Harris over Trump by a 9-point margin of 55% to 44%. Among likely black voters, Harris earned an overwhelming 89% support, while likely Hispanic voters leaned towards Harris by a margin of 58% to 41%. Young likely voters ages 18 to 29 also backed Harris, with 59% supporting her and 40% supporting Trump.

In terms of policy issues, Trump had an advantage of approximately 7 points over Harris in the areas of the economy and inflation, as well as a 10-point lead on immigration. Conversely, Harris enjoyed a 7-point advantage on safeguarding democracy, a 9-point edge on healthcare, and a substantial 14-point lead on abortion.

The ABC News/Ipsos survey collected responses from 3,276 adults and 2,196 likely voters, evenly distributed among Democrats, Republicans, and Independents. The margin of error for each group is plus or minus 2 percentage points. The survey was conducted between September 11th and 13th.

In what appears to be a significant shift from previous polling data in Iowa, a Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll released on Sunday indicated that Harris has narrowed Trump's lead in the Hawkeye State to a 4-point margin, with Trump leading 47% to 43%. This result is in stark contrast to June, when Trump held a commanding lead over Biden by a margin of 50% to 32%. Trump won Iowa by more than 8 points in the 2020 election.

Despite Harris's strong debate performance, it seems that it has not significantly altered the dynamics of the presidential race. As the candidates prepare for future debates and campaign events, their focus will likely shift towards winning over undecided voters and mobilizing their respective bases in the critical weeks leading up to the election.

The views expressed in this article do not reflect the opinion of ICARO, or any of its affiliates.

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