### Ukraine's Strategic Crossroads: Shifting Dynamics in a Prolonged Conflict

As the war in Ukraine persists into its second year, both Kyiv and Moscow are confronting the harsh realities of a sustained and large-scale conflict. If Ukraine continues on its current path, some experts predict it could face defeat by 2025—a future that could potentially be averted through strategic shifts.

Ukraine's "Victory Plan," which was intended to secure substantial Western military aid, ease limitations on donated weaponry, and launch a decisive counteroffensive, has not met its primary objective of extensive Western support. Despite receiving advanced systems like HIMARS, Patriot missiles, modern tanks, and, more recently, F-16 fighter jets, Kyiv faces restrictions on using these weapons, particularly regarding strikes on Russian soil. This hampers Ukraine's ability to disrupt Russian supply lines, airfields, and command structures from within Russian territory, an advantage that Moscow continues to exploit.

A key issue for Ukraine is the ongoing struggle to maintain its manpower. Russia, leveraging its vast population and resources, has supplemented its efforts with fighters from North Korea and other allies. In contrast, Ukraine, which has witnessed significant losses among its 500,000 active-duty soldiers, is struggling to replace its battlefield casualties. Though around 500,000 Ukrainian men are eligible for military service under the expanded criteria, nearly half are reportedly unwilling to fight.

Kyiv's conservative approach to conscription—exempting men aged 18-24 due to low birth rates in 2006 and drafting men aged 25-27—contrasts sharply with Russia's more aggressive recruitment, which has involved the use of mercenaries from groups such as the Wagner Group and fighters from various international regions, including Chechnya and Syria.

The Ukrainian government's August offensive in Kursk, initially viewed as highly successful, has been criticized for depleting already strained manpower further. With both sides suffering heavy casualties, the West's hesitance in providing unrestricted military support exacerbates Kyiv's precarious position. US officials estimate Russian casualties around 615,000, with UK intelligence indicating an increase of over 1,000 per day. Ukraine's toll, though half of Russia's, is more harrowing given its smaller population.

To alter the course of the conflict, experts recommend several urgent actions: lowering the conscription age to 21, working with European agencies to draft Ukrainian refugees, lifting restrictions on Western-donated weaponry, intensifying training for Ukrainian forces, and enforcing stricter economic sanctions on Russia through its trading partners like China and India. Strengthening NATO's presence on its eastern flank is crucial to deterring further Russian aggression and reassuring vulnerable Eastern European nations.

Without these strategic adjustments, Ukraine risks facing increasingly unfavorable outcomes. Significant policy shifts could, however, provide Kyiv with the leverage needed to push back Russian advances, opening a path towards a more stable and sustainable peace.