**Oil Markets Face Volatility Amid OPEC+ Uncertainty and Geopolitical Tensions**

Global energy markets are experiencing significant turbulence this week as oil prices falter due to uncertainties surrounding OPEC+ decisions and growing tensions between the U.S. and China. The unpredictable stance of OPEC+ and former President Donald Trump's assertions that China has violated its agreement with the U.S. have put considerable pressure on oil prices. Consequently, the price of ICE Brent has slipped below $64 per barrel, while WTI is teetering on the $60 per barrel threshold.

OPEC+ is eyeing a more substantial increase in oil production, with market expectations already set at a 411,000 barrels per day (b/d) rise from the 'Great Eight' in July. However, Saudi Arabia and Russia are contemplating an even bigger hike to penalize over-producers like Kazakhstan. Such a move could further destabilize the oil market in the coming weeks.

Saudi Aramco, the kingdom's national oil company, continues to secure funds for its ambitious investment plans, following a $5 billion bond sale. Despite the borrowing, Aramco maintains a gearing ratio of 5.3%, lower than many of its industry counterparts.

The Canadian oil sands sector is bracing for an onslaught as wildfires spread across Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Companies like Cenovus have started evacuating non-essential personnel from key operations such as the 180,000 b/d Foster Creek upgrader, while smaller producers have halted output altogether.

Libya faces the threat of renewed chaos, with the Benghazi government considering another force majeure declaration on the nation's oil fields and export terminals. This move stems from repeated assaults on the National Oil Corporation, as the government aims to relocate the entity from Tripoli to cities in the east.

In the realm of geopolitics, Iran has hinted at a potential nuclear deal, suggesting it could cease enrichment activities if the U.S. releases approximately $6 billion in frozen funds and acknowledges its right to civilian nuclear development. Such developments increase the likelihood of a U.S.-Iran nuclear agreement.

Chevron has ceased its production and service contracts in Venezuela, with the Trump administration's two-month wind-down period expiring this week. Venezuela's state oil firm PDVSA will now manage Chevron's former heavy sour exports, amounting to around 270,000-280,000 b/d.

Syria has signed a significant energy agreement with Qatar, with plans to build new power generation assets, including four combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) plants and a 1 GW solar plant, valued at $7 billion.

Kazakhstan has admitted it can no longer maintain current production levels within OPEC+ quotas, citing difficulties in controlling Western oil majors. The country seeks to surpass the reported 1.823 million b/d output, which already exceeds its quota by about 400,000 b/d.

Global mining giant Glencore is positioning itself for a potential merger with Rio Tinto. Having transferred $22 billion in foreign assets to its Australian subsidiary, the move comes amid leadership changes at Rio Tinto.

In Italy, the sale of the IP refinery has attracted interest from Gunvor and Azerbaijan's state oil company SOCAR, both expected to submit final bids by the end of May. The refinery's current owners, the Peretti family, are seeking a valuation of around $3.5 billion.