In response to the possibility of another Donald Trump presidency, America's NATO allies are making plans to increase their defense spending over the next six months. The objective is to protect the 75-year-old military partnership from potential disruptions that could arise from changing political realities, according to Oana Lungescu, former NATO spokesperson for Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.

To ensure stability and predictability for both allies and Ukraine, Stoltenberg is developing a funding plan that would relieve the United States of some of its organizational burden while maintaining full oversight. As part of this plan, Stoltenberg has proposed a five-year military aid package of $107 billion for Ukraine, which would involve greater direct involvement from the broader alliance, reducing the financial burden on the United States.

Trump's first term as president demonstrated his willingness to challenge and criticize NATO, putting the alliance on edge. His campaign has promised that, if reelected, he would aggressively pursue policies that call for increased defense spending from NATO allies. In contrast, the strategy proposed by Stoltenberg aims to address Trump's concerns about burden sharing while also safeguarding Ukraine against potential delays in Congress.

NATO allies are also committed to increasing their individual defense spending, although criticism from American presidents about insufficient contributions is not new. Currently, NATO guidelines state that member states should allocate a minimum of 2% of their GDP to defense spending to ensure military readiness. As of 2023, only 10 out of the 30 NATO members, excluding the United States, had met this commitment. However, it is expected that two-thirds of the allies will reach this goal by the end of the year, resulting in significantly increased defense spending overall.

While some fear that a second Trump term could mean withdrawal from NATO, a law passed by Congress prohibits the president from making such a decision without legislative approval or using appropriated funds for that purpose. However, experts warn that the unpredictability of Trump poses a risk to NATO and emphasize the importance of maintaining smooth diplomatic relations and honoring commitments.

A recent war game simulation conducted by Finley Grimble found that even if the U.S. does not withdraw from NATO, a second Trump presidency could weaken the alliance. In the simulation, the Trump administration attempts to broker a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, which ultimately fails. As a result, foreign aid to Ukraine is reduced, and U.S. participation in NATO exercises is significantly diminished, with a shift towards the Indo-Pacific region.

Grimble's analysis reveals that such a scenario could leave NATO vulnerable, leading to a "hollowed-out, unprepared shell" if NATO's command structure, where the supreme allied commander in Europe is a U.S. officer, is compromised. This further emphasizes the importance of maintaining cooperative efforts within the alliance.

Overall, as the 2024 presidential election approaches, NATO allies are taking proactive measures to bolster their defense spending, ensuring the resilience of the alliance amidst potential political shifts and safeguarding the stability of the trans-Atlantic partnership.