In a bid to navigate his way out of the political quagmire he finds himself in, French President Emmanuel Macron has turned to Michel Barnier as his new Prime Minister. While Barnier's appointment might provide Macron with some breathing space, it is unlikely to offer a long-lasting solution to the challenges facing the French leader.

Macron's recent struggles have been exacerbated by his inability to command a guaranteed majority in parliament. This has led to a series of futile attempts to appoint a prime minister, with prospective candidates disavowed or deemed unsuitable for the post. Macron has been particularly cautious about finding someone who will protect his legacy, including the contentious pension reforms, and who can avoid automatic rejection by the opposition.

Enter Michel Barnier, a 73-year-old seasoned politician known for his calm demeanor and negotiating skills. As a member of the center-right, Barnier supports the pension reform measures and even proposed pushing the retirement age to 65 during his failed bid for the conservative presidential nomination in 2021. This aligns with Macron's objectives and could secure his support in parliament.

Of particular significance is Barnier's stance on the vote of confidence. Marine Le Pen, leader of the populist National Rally, has indicated that her party will not automatically vote against a Barnier government. This is in stark contrast to the opposition's attitude towards other center-right candidates. Barnier's views on immigration, including the suggestion of bypassing European courts of justice, also sit well with Le Pen's party.

The National Rally has hinted that if Barnier's agenda addresses their concerns around immigration, the cost of living, and the implementation of proportional representation, they might withhold their opposition. However, this reprieve is temporary, as Barnier is viewed by many as governing on borrowed time. The left-wing New Popular Front, which emerged as a prominent force in July's election, is aggrieved by Macron's choice of prime minister. They argue that their victory should have been followed by the appointment of a left-wing candidate.

The success of Barnier's tenure will ultimately depend on his choice of ministers and his autonomy from President Macron. While technically the French constitution grants the prime minister freedom in setting and executing policy, Barnier's political inclination and alignment with Macron's agenda suggest that he is unlikely to deviate significantly. Both men share centrist ideologies with right-wing economic leanings and a strong belief in the European Union.

However, there is a risk that Barnier's appointment will be perceived as a continuation of Macronism rather than a new approach. The upcoming budget debate will be a critical test to determine if this is the case. If Barnier fails to differentiate himself and implement policies that resonate with the desires of the electorate, a backlash could swiftly ensue, given the hostility of the newly-formed Assembly.

While Michel Barnier's appointment as Prime Minister might buy Emmanuel Macron some precious time, it remains to be seen whether it will provide a lasting fix to the myriad of challenges the French President faces. As the political landscape evolves and public sentiment fluctuates, Macron must navigate these uncertain waters with astuteness and tact to secure the stability and support he desperately needs.