In a surprise operation, US authorities have arrested two high-ranking leaders of the notorious Sinaloa cartel, causing a ripple of speculation and concern in Mexico. Mexican President, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, has called for transparency in the aftermath of these secretive arrests, which targeted Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada García and Joaquín Guzmán López, son of the imprisoned cartel founder, Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán Loera.

Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada García, aged 76, co-founded the Sinaloa cartel with El Chapo and has long been a primary target for US law enforcement, with a $15 million bounty on his head. El Mayo was apprehended in El Paso, Texas, along with Guzmán López, who is already serving a life sentence in the US.

Startlingly, Mexican authorities have acknowledged being completely unaware of this operation, highlighting the lack of coordination between the two countries. US officials have emphasized that the arrests were a major blow to fentanyl trafficking, an issue of grave concern due to the opioid crisis. However, the circumstances surrounding the arrests have led to various theories, including claims of self-orchestration, deception, or even betrayal between El Mayo and Guzmán López.

Adding complexity to the situation, El Mayo's lawyer stated that his client was arrested "against his will" and has pleaded not guilty to all charges in El Paso's federal court. The manner in which these arrests took place has the potential to drastically impact the criminal landscape in Mexico. The suggestion of betrayal within the Sinaloa cartel could ignite internal turmoil, as the organization is composed of multiple factions, networks, and cells that sometimes collaborate, but also clash with one another.

Since the capture of El Chapo, rival factions within the Sinaloa cartel, such as the group led by his sons, known as the Chapitos, have been engaged in violent conflicts with the faction led by El Mayo. The emergence of a betrayal narrative could further exacerbate tensions among these factions. Moreover, the removal of top leaders has historically resulted in splintering among criminal groups, leading to brutal territorial battles as new offshoots vie for control and profit.

While the Sinaloa cartel and the Cártel Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG) are recognized as the two primary organized crime groups with a national presence in Mexico, there has been a proliferation of hundreds of smaller criminal groups in recent times. Despite suggestions that El Mayo had taken a backseat due to age and health issues, his absence from the scene might trigger a fresh wave of clashes and power struggles within the cartel.

The apprehensions of El Mayo and Guzmán López are being hailed as a symbolic victory for US authorities, given their longstanding pursuit of the former. However, experts doubt that these arrests will significantly disrupt fentanyl trafficking, as the illicit drug trade has become decentralized, allowing for the rise of numerous players and minimizing the impact of removing key figures.

"The fragmented nature of the synthetic drug supply chain has made it a far more decentralised operation with a relatively low barrier to entry," noted an expert from InSight Crime. "This is a market that cannot be killed by taking a couple of kingpins out of the picture."

Amidst the implications of this unilateral operation and potential information exchanges between El Mayo and Guzmán in exchange for deals, the diplomatic consequences remain uncertain. López Obrador has emphasized the need for open communication and cooperation between Mexico and the US, especially as both countries navigate critical issues relating to security, trade, energy, and migration.

As the aftermath of these arrests unfolds, it remains to be seen how the Sinaloa cartel and rival criminal organizations will adapt to the changing dynamics and who may seize the opportunity to fill a potential power vacuum. The coming weeks will likely shed more light on the implications and repercussions of these watershed events.