A series of recent opinion polls have sparked speculation that the Labour Party is set to secure a substantial majority in the upcoming general election, while the Conservatives face the risk of a significant electoral setback. However, experts suggest that caution should be exercised regarding poll findings.

Traditional polls, conducted by 16 companies over the past week, indicate that Labour is currently averaging 41% of the vote, marking a three-point decline from the time Rishi Sunak called the election. Despite this drop, Labour maintains a significant 20-point lead over the Conservatives, who stand at 21%, also experiencing a three-point decrease since the campaign began. The regular polls indicate that Prime Minister Boris Johnson's campaign has so far failed to make any significant progress in reducing Labour's lead.

Interestingly, Reform UK, under the leadership of Nigel Farage, has gained some ground during the campaign. Since Farage announced his candidacy, support for Reform UK has increased by five points compared to the start of the election. The Liberal Democrats have also seen a slight increase, currently polling at 11%, up by one point. Meanwhile, the Greens are maintaining their initial 6% support.

While past regular polls have not always been accurate, two key points emerge from the recent numbers. Firstly, only 62% of respondents indicate their voting intention for either the Conservatives or Labour. This figure would mark a record-low since the Labour Party first became the principal challengers to the Conservatives in 1922. Secondly, the Conservatives have never before registered such low levels of support in opinion polls, including during general elections.

Turning to the polls demonstrating a potential landslide victory for Labour, the latest findings from polling companies YouGov, Savanta, and More in Common employ a multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) model. These polls survey significantly larger numbers of voters, reaching as many as 40,000 in certain cases. By studying different demographic factors such as gender, age, and educational background, statisticians can determine how different groups are likely to distribute their support to various parties.

Combining this data with information from sources like the Census, which provide the number of individuals in each demographic group per constituency, these MRP polls offer insights into how party support has varied across the country since the last election. This information becomes crucial in assessing the number of seats each party may attain under the electoral system.

All recent MRP polls indicate that the Conservatives may potentially secure fewer seats than ever before. Their historical low was 156 seats in 1906. However, estimates of the exact number of Conservative MPs returning to Parliament vary significantly, ranging from as few as 53 to as many as 155.

The prevailing belief among these polls is that the Conservative Party is losing support, particularly in constituencies they currently hold, rather than in seats already under opposition control. Consequently, if this trend continues, the Conservative Party may face a substantial loss of seats compared to a scenario where their support would diminish evenly across all constituencies. However, the MRP polls do not fully agree on the extent of this decline.

For instance, More in Common estimates that in constituencies where the Conservatives held a lead of 25 points or more over Labour in 2019, Conservative support is currently down by an average of 23 points. In comparison, in seats where Labour was in the lead with the Conservatives in second place last time, Conservative support is reported to have fallen by 12 points, representing an 11-point difference.

Interestingly, the poll conducted by Savanta and Electoral Calculus, which predicted the potential for 53 Conservative seats, suggests a 21-point divergence in the average decline of Conservative support between the two types of seats.

As the campaign progresses towards the July 4th election day, the uncertainty surrounding these differing estimates and the potential outcome of the election remains. The polling data suggests a strong advantage for Labour and a challenging situation for the Conservatives. However, it is essential to recognize that polls can be subject to varying levels of accuracy, and the final outcome of the election will ultimately depend on voter turnout and numerous other factors that cannot be captured solely by opinion polls.