In a recent poll conducted by YouGov for Sky News, the Labour Party has surged ahead with a 27-point lead, indicating the possibility of a decent majority for Keir Starmer and a chance to assume control of Number 10. However, despite this positive outcome, Starmer's own ratings as a potential prime minister are less than stellar, with 47% of voters considering him to be a bad choice.

The decision made by Starmer regarding Diane Abbott, a high-profile Labour politician, is seen as part of his wider strategy to present a "changed" Labour Party, steering away from the era of Jeremy Corbyn. However, the handling of Abbott's situation has caused disagreement within the party and unexpectedly resulted in a messy and delayed response. Prominent Labour politicians, including Jess Phillips, have expressed their dissatisfaction, and televised rallies in Hackney have overshadowed the party's efforts to convey messages on important issues like NHS waiting times.

While the Abbott controversy may not have an immediate political impact, it could have secondary effects in the future. Starmer recognizes the importance of maintaining good relations with the Jewish community and is keen to distance himself from the previous leadership's stance. Nonetheless, there remains a nostalgic segment within the party that is attached to the Corbyn era, and Starmer won the leadership by attempting to keep them onside.

The polling paradox reveals potential trouble ahead for Starmer, despite Labour's significant lead. With only 33% of voters believing him to be a good prime minister, it appears that he may not enjoy a public opinion honeymoon. This comes at a crucial time when he will be required to make difficult decisions, notably in relation to tax increases. While Labour has promised not to raise income tax, national insurance, and corporation tax, there are no such restrictions on other taxes. Given the Tories' focus on the subject, taxation is likely to be a key point of contention in the upcoming days.

To navigate through potential unpopularity, Starmer will need a solid support base. However, it seems that some of his existing supporters are disheartened by his treatment of Diane Abbott. Although this current row may not have significant consequences in the present campaign, it does raise concerns about the durability of the bond between the leader and the party. If these bonds are easily frayed, it suggests potential trouble ahead for Sir Keir should Labour secure power in the upcoming elections.

As the campaign progresses, it will be interesting to see how Starmer manages to address the complexities surrounding internal party dynamics, public opinion, and the challenges of making difficult decisions while maintaining Labour's lead in the polls.