According to recent voter surveys, Kamala Harris's rise in popularity as the Democratic presidential nominee has opened up a surprising second path to victory in the upcoming November election. An analysis of aggregated polls by the Washington Post indicates that the US Vice President has become increasingly competitive in four southern Sun belt states that were previously leaning towards Donald Trump, the Republican nominee and former president.

If this trend continues, Harris could secure an electoral college victory by either winning these four states - Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina - or by capturing three swing states in the midwestern Rust Belt, namely Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. In contrast, Trump would need to win both groups of states to secure the necessary 270 electoral college votes for victory, according to the analysis.

This potential second front in Harris's pathway to victory may be seen as a significant advantage gained from her elevation to the top of the Democratic ticket, as it expands the party's chances of retaining the White House beyond Biden's earlier reliance on the three Rust Belt states. Since replacing Biden, Harris has gained an average of two percentage points nationally and 2.1% in seven battleground states.

The outcome of US presidential elections is determined by the electoral college, where candidates strive to secure a majority of 538 electoral votes allocated state by state. The polls suggest that Harris now leads in the Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and has closed the gap in Michigan to within one point of Trump. Biden had won all three states in 2020, albeit by narrow margins.

In addition, Harris has significantly improved her standing in three Sun belt states - Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia - as well as North Carolina. She has narrowed the gap with Trump enough to be within the margin of error in the polls. While Biden won the first three states by narrow margins in 2020, the improved support for Harris in North Carolina means that Democratic strategists are envisioning a potential victory there, despite the party having won the state only once in presidential elections since 1980.

Although these poll numbers indicate Harris becoming competitive in more states compared to Trump, she still trails behind him in the overall count. However, a recent Washington Post/Ipsos poll shows that her choice of running mate, Tim Walz, Governor of Minnesota, is viewed more favorably by voters than Trump's selection of JD Vance. Vance's hardline anti-abortion views and record of misogynistic comments about childless women have seemingly caused trouble with female voters. While Walz received a positive rating of 9% (39% favorable, 30% unfavorable), Vance's rating was negative, with 32% favorable and 42% unfavorable.

With the Democratic National Convention approaching, Harris is capitalizing on her campaign's optimism by delivering a keynote economic speech in Raleigh, North Carolina, focusing on issues such as price gouging, rising food prices, and high housing costs. Republicans see these areas as potential vulnerabilities for Harris. Meanwhile, Vance, a senator for Ohio, is making appearances in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, underscoring the Trump campaign's recognition of the importance of these states in securing victory.

As the election race "resets" with the boost in Harris's chances of winning swing states, she is emerging as a slight favorite in the analysis. The coming weeks will prove crucial in determining whether Harris can solidify her newfound competitive edge and secure a path to victory in November.