Kamala Harris Holds Narrow Lead Over Donald Trump in Latest National Polls
ICARO Media Group
Kamala Harris, the presumptive Democratic nominee for Vice President, is currently leading her opponent, Donald Trump, in multiple national polls. According to recent surveys, Harris is ahead of the former president by a margin of 1 to 4 points.
The most recent poll conducted by RMG Research reveals that Harris maintains a 5-point lead over Trump in the national popular vote. The survey, conducted from July 29 to July 31 among 3,000 registered voters, shows Harris at 47 percent and Trump at 42 percent. Similarly, a poll conducted by Civiqs between July 27 and July 30 also shows Harris leading Trump by 5 points among 1,123 registered voters.
In another poll conducted by Leger between July 26 and July 28, Harris is ahead of Trump by 3 points. The survey, which encompassed 1,002 U.S. residents, shows Harris with 49 percent of the vote compared to Trump's 46 percent. Notably, this represents a 4-point increase for Harris since Leger's June poll. When third-party candidates were included, Harris' lead over Trump grew to 7 points.
However, Harris holds a smaller lead of 2 points over Trump in four other national polls. The Economist and YouGov's survey of 1,434 registered voters shows Harris with a lead within the margin of error. Similarly, Redfield and Wilton Strategies, Angus Reid, and Florida Atlantic University polls all indicate Harris leading by 2 points, still within each poll's margin of error.
The smallest lead for Harris comes from a Morning Consult poll of 2,223 registered U.S. voters conducted between July 26 and July 28. The survey shows Harris leading Trump by just 1 point, with 47 percent to his 46 percent.
While the polls are largely positive for Harris since she launched her campaign two weeks ago, many polling experts believe that Trump remains the current favorite to win in November. Nate Silver, an election analyst and statistician, predicts that Harris is more likely to win the popular vote, but Trump has a greater chance of winning the Electoral College.
According to Silver's model, Trump has a 54.9 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, while Harris stands at 44.6 percent. In terms of the popular vote, Harris has a 53.5 percent chance of winning, while Trump has a 46.5 percent chance.
Looking at specific swing states, Harris is considered a slight favorite to win Michigan, with a 54 percent chance, while Wisconsin is tied, with both candidates at a 50 percent chance of carrying it in November. Trump, on the other hand, maintains leads in swing states such as Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina.
Aggregate polls from The New York Times, The Hill, and RealClearPolitics also show Trump leading Harris, although his lead is smaller compared to his lead over Biden prior to Biden's exit from the race.
As the race intensifies, Harris is expected to announce her running mate in the coming days. The two will then embark on a campaign trail across key swing states in the U.S. next week to sustain the momentum gained since Harris became the Democratic nominee. The Democratic National Convention is scheduled to take place the following week in Chicago.
Meanwhile, Trump has campaign rallies lined up in Atlanta, Georgia, on August 3, and in Bozeman, Montana, on August 9, according to his campaign website. The competitive race continues as both candidates strive to secure crucial swing states that could play a decisive role in the November election.