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Israel's recent airstrikes on Iran have triggered a wide range of responses from analysts familiar with the ongoing conflict. While some fear these attacks could escalate tensions and lead to a full-blown war, others remain hopeful that this might de-escalate the situation and pave the way for a broader cease-fire.

A notable source of optimism is the restraint demonstrated by Israel. The airstrikes were in retaliation for Iran's launch of approximately 200 ballistic missiles aimed at Israeli military targets on October 1. The Iranian missile attack was, in turn, a response to the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah by Israel four days prior. In response, some Israeli officials advocated for a more aggressive approach, targeting Iran's nuclear and energy facilities. However, under pressure from U.S. President Joe Biden for proportional retaliation, Israel focused its military efforts on over 20 Iranian military sites, including air bases, missile production factories, and air defense installations, without targeting civilian infrastructure.

The strategy sent a clear message to Tehran: Israel’s restraint was a choice, not a necessity, and greater damage could be inflicted in any future conflicts. This creates a dilemma for Iranian leadership, balancing the need to show strength against Israel with the imperative to protect strategic assets and ensure regime survival.

Iran's response has been relatively muted, suggesting they may not escalate further. Reflecting on similar past incidents, such as one in April, some speculate that Iran might declare the conflict over. The future actions of Iranian allies within the so-called "axis of resistance"—groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad—remain uncertain. They might refrain from direct confrontation and revert to proxy strategies.

The situation could influence Iran's approach to its nuclear program. With some facilities well-protected and others vulnerable, an acceleration in nuclear development could be a risky strategy. Potential Israeli and U.S. intelligence interventions add another layer of complexity to Iran’s decisions.

Meanwhile, Gaza remains a critical factor. Following the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar on October 16, there are signs of potential diplomatic movements. Reports from Saudi media indicated that Hamas might propose releasing all remaining hostages in exchange for Israeli troop withdrawal from Gaza. The role of Hamas diplomats and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s stance on a complete withdrawal, especially in light of possible international mediation by Egypt and Saudi Arabia, are critical points of contention.

Israeli domestic politics also play a role. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has critiqued Netanyahu's post-war strategy for Gaza, emphasizing the need for a more comprehensive plan. The impending U.S. presidential election adds another layer of complexity. Netanyahu's strategies may hinge on potential outcomes, with differing implications if either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins the presidency.

In conclusion, the trajectory towards peace, while possible, requires the alignment of several significant factors, ranging from U.S. diplomatic involvement to the internal decision-making processes in Iran and Hamas. The potential for a cease-fire remains a distant hope shaped by the strategic calculations of various regional and international stakeholders.