### Early Voting Trends Reveal Key Insights as Election Day Approaches

As the pre-election voting period wraps up across the nation, millions of Americans have already cast their ballots ahead of Election Day. According to data from CNN, Edison Research, and Catalist, over 78 million ballots have been submitted in 47 states and the District of Columbia. This figure provides a glimpse into who is participating in early voting, even though it does not predict the final outcomes.

A significant change this election cycle has been the decline in early voting compared to the 2020 pandemic-era election. Four years ago, more than 110 million Americans opted for early voting, either in person or by mail, accounting for roughly 70% of the total votes. This year, early voting is expected to account for closer to 50% of total ballots, mirroring trends seen in the 2022 midterms.

Despite this overall decrease, some states have reported record numbers of in-person early voters. Notably, North Carolina and Georgia have seen higher participation in early in-person voting compared to 2020. However, the total pre-election voting numbers in these states remain lower than four years ago due to a significant drop in mail-in voting, a method that was particularly popular during the pandemic. Additionally, stricter mail voting laws in these states have made it more challenging for voters to cast their ballots by mail.

One of the noticeable shifts in this election cycle is the increase in early voting by Republicans. The Trump campaign has actively encouraged early and mail-in voting this year, a stark contrast to their 2020 stance against it. In the 27 states for which Catalist has comparable data, registered Democrats have accounted for 37% of the pre-election ballots, while registered Republicans have cast 35%. This represents a narrowing of the gap from 2020, where Democrats led by 12 percentage points in the same states.

In key battleground states, the trend follows a similar pattern. In Arizona, 41% of pre-election voters have been Republicans, a 4-point increase from 2020. Democrats, on the other hand, have seen a 3-point decrease, making up 33% of early voters. Nevada's data shows Republicans increasing their share by 1 point to 37%, while Democrats have dropped to 34% from 38% in 2020.

North Carolina has also seen a shift, with Republicans accounting for 33% of early votes, up from 31% in 2020, and Democrats decreasing to 32%. In Pennsylvania, the Republican share of the pre-election vote has surged by 10 points to 33%, while the Democratic share has declined by the same margin to 56%.

Despite the increased Republican participation in early voting, recent CNN polling indicates that Vice President Kamala Harris is leading among those who have already voted, including in most battleground states except Nevada.

Gender dynamics in early voting remain consistent with patterns observed in 2020 and 2022. In the seven most competitive states, around 1.8 million more women than men have voted early. However, this gap has narrowed slightly compared to four years ago. Georgia has the most pronounced gender gap, with women casting 56% of the early votes. In Arizona and North Carolina, women accounted for 52% and 56% of the early votes, respectively, while Nevada reported a closer split with women making up 51% of early voters.

As election day looms, these early voting trends provide a snapshot of voter behavior and engagement, but the final outcome will only be clear after all ballots are counted in the coming weeks.