Insightful Economic Reports To Influence Federal Reserve Policy Meeting

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ICARO Media Group
Politics
27/10/2024 17h21

**Upcoming Reports Highlight Economic Resilience Ahead of Federal Reserve Policy Meeting**

A series of pivotal economic reports this week are set to influence the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting, showcasing underlying robustness in the U.S. economy alongside temporary fluctuations in job growth. The key focus will be Friday's employment report, which is predicted to reveal a modest increase of 110,000 in payrolls, approximately half of this year’s average gain of 200,000. The slight uptick will mirror labor market disruptions caused by two hurricanes and Boeing Co.'s work stoppage. The unemployment rate is anticipated to remain steady at 4.1%.

Despite these transient detriments, economists forecast that the Federal Reserve will likely overlook these aberrations and proceed with a quarter percentage point interest rate cut during their meeting on November 6-7. Confidence in moderating price pressures persists, though a separate report might indicate an acceleration in the bank’s favored inflation gauge, with the personal consumption expenditures price index, not counting volatile food and energy costs, expected to rise by 0.3% in September – the most substantial increase in five months. Additionally, consumer spending and personal income demonstrated growth in September, reflecting strong momentum in the economy's largest sector.

Midweek, the government will release the first estimate of the third-quarter gross domestic product, with forecasts pointing to a solid 3% annualized growth rate, mirroring the previous quarter’s performance. This growth is attributed to buoyant consumer spending and an uptick in business investments in equipment. Also on the agenda are reports on September job openings, third-quarter employment costs, and October consumer confidence, alongside the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index for October.

Attention will also be centered on Canada, where GDP data will determine if the economy aligns with the Bank of Canada’s forecast of 1.5% annualized growth for the third quarter, a revision from an earlier estimate of 2.8%. This revision followed a 50 basis points rate cut on October 23. Bank of Canada officials, including Governor Tiff Macklem, are expected to address lawmakers about this decision.

Globally, economic data and policy decisions will hold significant interest. In the UK, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves is set to reveal a pivotal budget, with potential implications for public investment and fiscal policies amid broader economic goals. The European Central Bank will receive critical data to inform its December policy move, particularly in light of anticipated third-quarter GDP growth and modest inflation increases across the euro zone.

In Asia, China’s purchasing manager indexes will be closely analyzed to assess the economy’s health post recent stimuli measures. The Bank of Japan is expected to keep interest rates steady, while Australia braces for data on price growth. Reports from Indonesia, Pakistan, Hong Kong, and Taiwan will shed light on regional economic conditions.

In Latin America, Mexico’s data is predicted to reflect slower growth as the year winds down, with unemployment figures rising and Chile’s labor market showing signs of slack. Brazil's industrial output is expected to decline, and Colombia’s central bank is likely to ease borrowing costs further.

These forthcoming reports and policy steps will offer a comprehensive view of the global economic landscape, shaping the actions of central banks and financial markets in the weeks to come.

The views expressed in this article do not reflect the opinion of ICARO, or any of its affiliates.

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