In a recent speech at an Atlantic Council event, Army Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, head of U.S. European Command and Supreme Allied Commander Europe, emphasized that Russia would remain a significant long-term threat to NATO and global security, regardless of the outcome of the war in Ukraine.

Although Russia has been using refurbished, older model weapons with lower quality during the conflict, Gen. Cavoli expressed concern over the Kremlin's swift reconstitution of military might, both in terms of quantity and capabilities. Pentagon estimates indicate that Russia has suffered approximately 315,000 casualties and lost 20 medium-to-large Navy vessels since the war began in 2022.

Despite these losses, Gen. Cavoli highlighted that the Russian army in Ukraine has actually grown larger than its initial size at the beginning of the conflict. He warned that post-war, Russia plans to expand the size of its military further and has already ramped up industrial production and manpower intake to achieve this goal. This expansion could include forces positioned on the borders with NATO and in western parts of Russia and associated nations.

To counter the rising stakes and to show NATO's readiness, the alliance has initiated Steadfast Defender, one of its most extensive military exercise series since the Cold War. The six-month exercise involves the participation of 13 countries, including Sweden, NATO's newest member, and features advanced aircraft such as F-35s, F-15s, and UAVs.

Gen. Cavoli particularly praised NATO members' air forces, acknowledging them as a "great and growing success story." He pointed out that these air forces are well-trained and well-equipped, with plans for further fleet enhancement. By 2030, the alliance is set to have over 600 F-35s in Europe, with additional stealthy F-35 fleets being acquired by Belgium, Finland, and Poland.

Gen. Cavoli emphasized the importance of integrating fifth-generation aircraft into a network, as each additional aircraft enhances overall capabilities through expanded sensor coverage. He also noted the potential to incorporate other high-end fighters such as Sweden's Gripen and France's Rafale, creating more opportunities for cooperation in the future.

While Gen. Cavoli praised NATO's focus on high-end threats, he acknowledged the alliance's need to balance other capabilities, such as close air support. However, he reassured that NATO still possesses a substantial number of fourth-generation aircraft, allowing them to maintain their capabilities.

With Russia and NATO engaged in a competitive buildup and modernization of their militaries, Gen. Cavoli stressed the importance of hastening NATO's defense force development. He stated that the determination and speed with which NATO can achieve its force structure requirements will ultimately determine whether Russia gains an advantage or if NATO retains its edge.

As the conflict in Ukraine continues, Gen. Cavoli's warnings serve as a reminder that Russia's threat to NATO and global security extends beyond the outcome of the war. It becomes paramount for NATO to expedite its force development and maintain readiness in the face of a resurgent Russia.

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