In a major blow to Germany's coalition government, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party emerged victorious in the state elections in Saxony and Thuringia. The results of these regional elections hold significant implications for national politics, as they serve as a gauge of the federal government's performance.

Notably, the AfD secured more than a third of the vote for the first time in an election for a state parliament, demonstrating the party's growing influence. Another newcomer to the political landscape, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), also managed to garner significant support in its maiden election.

In Saxony and Thuringia, the AfD received more than double the combined votes of the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), environmentalist Greens, and neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP), which form the federal coalition government in Berlin. Moreover, the Greens and FDP failed to meet the necessary 5% threshold to gain representation in the state parliaments.

The results of these state elections have been widely interpreted as a punishment for the coalition government in Berlin. Public dissatisfaction with the government has been an ongoing issue, with the monthly survey consistently showing poor ratings for Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his ministers. The government's response to the recent knife attack in Solingen, though swift and unanimous, failed to make a significant impact.

AfD co-leader Alice Weidel described the state election victories as "historic" for her party and called for the federal government to step down. She emphasized that the government should consider the possibility of fresh elections.

All eyes are now on the upcoming election in the state of Brandenburg, scheduled for September 22. The AfD is currently leading in the polls, closely followed by the Social Democrats. The elections in Brandenburg will be crucial for the ruling SPD, which has held power since 1990. Party leaders are urging unity and concerted efforts to regain support.

Despite the setbacks in Saxony and Thuringia, Chancellor Scholz continues to enjoy the support of his party, which rejects discussions of leadership changes. However, if the incumbent State Premier of Brandenburg, Dietmar Woidke, fails to secure reelection, rumors within the SPD may grow louder about Defense Minister Boris Pistorius potentially becoming the chancellor candidate for the 2025 federal elections.

The poor state election results and dismal polling numbers have also amplified calls within the individual coalition parties to strengthen their profiles and increase their visibility. There are potential areas of conflict, such as the upcoming budget decisions and the implementation of stricter migration policies, where disagreement may surface between the left wings of the SPD and the Greens.

The coalition government of the SPD, Greens, and FDP cannot afford to let the coalition fail as it would result in potential early nationwide elections. Current polling indicates that the AfD and the Conservative Union of the Christian Democrats (CDU) would benefit from such elections, whereas the coalition parties would lose their majority.

The CDU/CSU opposition bloc has seized this opportunity to pressure the federal government further. They demand the prompt implementation of the proposed changes to migration policies and advocate for even tighter regulations. CDU chairman Friedrich Merz even suggested declaring a "national state of emergency" to enable the direct refusal of asylum-seekers at the German border.

The consequences of the far-right AfD's success in the state elections reverberate throughout German politics. The coalition government faces mounting challenges, both internally within their respective parties and externally from the opposition. As the state of Brandenburg prepares for its crucial election, the path ahead remains uncertain for Germany's coalition government.