Exit Polls Predict Third Consecutive Term for India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi

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ICARO Media Group
Politics
01/06/2024 16h00

According to the latest exit polls, India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are expected to secure a third consecutive term in office. While analysts caution that these polls have been unreliable in the past and may not be impartial, they consistently place the BJP as the frontrunner in the general elections.

The hotly contested campaign saw the BJP, the main opposition Congress party, and regional rivals engage in a fierce battle over seven phases of polling. The results of the election will be announced on 4 June, with a party or coalition needing to secure 272 seats in parliament to form a government.

The exit polls indicate that the BJP-led coalition, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), is on track to surpass the required majority. While the exact numbers vary, the aggregate of six exit polls suggests that the NDA could secure 367 seats, with the main opposition Congress-led INDIA bloc expected to win 143 seats. Independently, the BJP is projected to secure 327 seats, falling slightly short of their target of 370 seats.

If Modi emerges victorious, he will become only the second prime minister in India's history to hold office for three consecutive terms, following in the footsteps of Jawaharlal Nehru, the country's first prime minister.

Modi entered the election with widespread popularity, but his main rival, Rahul Gandhi, leader of the Indian National Congress, and a coalition of opposition parties, gained momentum throughout the lengthy campaign period. However, these exit polls suggest a significant edge for the BJP-led NDA. It is important to note that exit polls are not always accurate reflections of the final results.

India, the world's most populous country with 1.4 billion people, undertook a herculean task in conducting a nationwide election. A staggering 969 million citizens were eligible to cast their votes, reflecting the scale and significance of the democratic process. The election season was marked by fiery speeches, numerous rallies, and political maneuvering on the ground and online.

The election was not without controversy, as various incidents emerged during the campaign period. Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal's arrest on a liquor policy case drew criticism from opposition leaders and sections of the media. Opponents accused the BJP government of attempting to silence rivals and create an uneven playing field, allegations which the BJP denies. Kejriwal was granted bail on 10 May to campaign but is required to return to jail on 2 June.

Reports of voting machine tampering, voter disenfranchisement, and parties violating the Model Code of Conduct also marred the election. The allegations of opposition leaders against the Election Commission of India (ECI) were denied by the commission itself.

The inauguration of the Ram temple, which was a key promise made by the BJP during the election, and the government's welfare schemes are expected to have a positive influence on the ruling party's performance. However, concerns regarding high unemployment rates and rising costs of food and fuel may have influenced voters as well.

As India awaits the official election results, it remains to be seen whether these exit polls accurately reflect the outcome. Regardless, the election process itself serves as a testament to the strength of Indian democracy and the engagement of its citizens.

In other news, parts of the country are currently enduring scorching heatwaves, with some areas experiencing temperatures as high as 50°C. This extreme weather condition adds to the challenges faced by the nation during the election period.

The views expressed in this article do not reflect the opinion of ICARO, or any of its affiliates.

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