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Vice President Kamala Harris maintains a significant lead over former President Donald Trump among early voters in three pivotal swing states, according to recent polling. Conversely, Trump holds a comparable lead among likely voters who have not yet cast their ballots. This pattern is consistent with a broader national trend where Democrats are outpacing Republicans in early voting, similar to the 2020 presidential election.

The data comes from three separate polls conducted by Marist College between October 17 and 22 in North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona. Each survey sampled roughly 1,460 adults per state, with margins of error ranging from 3.2 to 3.5 percentage points.

In North Carolina, Harris leads Trump 55% to 43% among early voters. However, among likely voters yet to cast their ballots, Trump leads Harris 53% to 45%. Trump also has a slight lead over Harris among undecided likely voters, including those leaning towards one candidate. Among independents in North Carolina, Trump holds a notable lead of 53% to 42%. Racial demographics show Trump with an 18-point lead among white voters, while Harris shows a substantial advantage of 80% to 19% among Black voters. Generational divides are also evident, with Harris favored by Gen Z and Millennials and Trump by Gen X and Baby Boomers. The gender gap persists, with Trump leading among men 52% to 46% and Harris leading among women 50% to 49%.

Georgia presents a different scenario. Harris leads early voters by 10 points, 55% to 45%, while Trump leads 52% to 46% among likely voters who haven't voted yet. The candidates are tied among all likely voters, though Harris has a substantial 15-point lead among independents. Racial differences are pronounced, with Trump favored by white voters 67% to 32%, while Harris leads among Black voters 82% to 15%. Generational support also varies, with Harris favored by Gen Z/Millennials and Baby Boomers, and Trump by Gen X and the Greatest Generation. The gender gap continues, with Trump leading among men 56% to 43% and Harris leading among women 55% to 43%.

Arizona mirrors the trends in the other two states, with Harris leading early voters 56% to 44% and Trump leading those yet to vote 55% to 44%. Among all likely voters, Trump narrowly leads Harris 50% to 49%. Harris has a 10-point lead among independents. The data shows an even split among white voters, while Trump leads Latino voters by seven points. Generational divides continue, with Trump favored by Gen X and Harris by Baby Boomers. The gender gap is evident, with men favoring Trump 54% to 46% and women favoring Harris 53% to 45%.

These polls, conducted less than two weeks before Election Day, indicate a highly competitive race with varied support across different demographics and voting stages.