Early Sharp Money Leaning Towards Contrarian Plays in College Football Week 2

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ICARO Media Group
Politics
03/09/2024 23h37

In the second week of the College Football season, bettors have a plethora of games to choose from, but it’s the early sharp money that is indicating some intriguing contrarian plays. Let's take a closer look at where the smart money is leaning for a few highly anticipated matchups on Saturday's loaded slate.

In the Kansas State vs. Tulane game, Kansas State enters as a 10-point road favorite after a convincing season-opening win against UT Martin. However, despite the majority of public support favoring Kansas State, the line has remained frozen at -10. This indicates a sharp line freeze favoring Tulane at the key number of +10, with sportsbooks hesitant to give the hook to brave Green Wave backers. Tulane, although receiving only 22% of spread bets, is seen as one of the top contrarian plays this week, offering buy-low, sell-high value as an unranked home underdog against a ranked opponent.

Moving on to the Arkansas vs. Oklahoma State matchup, Oklahoma State opened as a 9.5-point home favorite. Interestingly, despite receiving 60% of spread bets, the line has shifted downward, now sitting at -7.5. This reverse line movement suggests sharp action on Arkansas, as professional bettors see value in grabbing the points with the road underdog. With only 40% of spread bets, Arkansas carries a notable contrarian status in this heavily bet, nationally televised game.

In yet another intriguing matchup, the Pittsburgh Panthers take on the Cincinnati Bearcats. Cincinnati opened as a 2.5-point home favorite, but the line has moved in favor of Pittsburgh, now standing at +2. Some sportsbooks even have the Panthers listed at +1.5. This line movement indicates smart money leaning towards the Panthers to cover the spread. Although split tickets imply an even distribution, the line movement suggests a favorable position for Pittsburgh, supporting the notion of buy-low, sell-high value as an unranked road underdog against a ranked opponent.

Lastly, the Iowa State Cyclones face off against the Iowa Hawkeyes. Despite overwhelming public support for the Hawkeyes, with 88% of spread bets laying the short chalk at home, the line has consistently dropped back down to Iowa -2.5 every time it rises to Iowa -3. This indicates sharp buyback on Iowa State at the key number of +3, portraying a sharp line freeze on the Cyclones. As a result, Iowa State becomes one of the top contrarian plays of the week, presenting buy-low, sell-high value as an unranked road underdog against a ranked opponent.

In terms of totals, the smart money is leaning towards the under in a few of these matchups. The Kansas State-Tulane game has seen the total drop from 50 to 49, with only 23% of bets but 45% of money favoring the under. Similarly, the total in the Arkansas-Oklahoma State matchup has risen from 61 to 63, driven by 55% of bets but 86% of dollars on the over. Lastly, the total in the Iowa State-Iowa game has dropped from 37 to 35.5, with 58% of bets but 75% of dollars favoring the under.

As Week 2 of College Football kicks off, the early sharp money leans towards contrarian plays, suggesting potential value in underdogs and smart under betting strategies. The outcome of these games will likely have a significant impact on bettors' pockets and provide some exciting action on the gridiron.

The views expressed in this article do not reflect the opinion of ICARO, or any of its affiliates.

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