Early Sharp Money Leaning Towards Contrarian Plays in College Football Week 2
ICARO Media Group
In the second week of the College Football season, bettors have a plethora of games to choose from, but it’s the early sharp money that is indicating some intriguing contrarian plays. Let's take a closer look at where the smart money is leaning for a few highly anticipated matchups on Saturday's loaded slate.
In the Kansas State vs. Tulane game, Kansas State enters as a 10-point road favorite after a convincing season-opening win against UT Martin. However, despite the majority of public support favoring Kansas State, the line has remained frozen at -10. This indicates a sharp line freeze favoring Tulane at the key number of +10, with sportsbooks hesitant to give the hook to brave Green Wave backers. Tulane, although receiving only 22% of spread bets, is seen as one of the top contrarian plays this week, offering buy-low, sell-high value as an unranked home underdog against a ranked opponent.
Moving on to the Arkansas vs. Oklahoma State matchup, Oklahoma State opened as a 9.5-point home favorite. Interestingly, despite receiving 60% of spread bets, the line has shifted downward, now sitting at -7.5. This reverse line movement suggests sharp action on Arkansas, as professional bettors see value in grabbing the points with the road underdog. With only 40% of spread bets, Arkansas carries a notable contrarian status in this heavily bet, nationally televised game.
In yet another intriguing matchup, the Pittsburgh Panthers take on the Cincinnati Bearcats. Cincinnati opened as a 2.5-point home favorite, but the line has moved in favor of Pittsburgh, now standing at +2. Some sportsbooks even have the Panthers listed at +1.5. This line movement indicates smart money leaning towards the Panthers to cover the spread. Although split tickets imply an even distribution, the line movement suggests a favorable position for Pittsburgh, supporting the notion of buy-low, sell-high value as an unranked road underdog against a ranked opponent.
Lastly, the Iowa State Cyclones face off against the Iowa Hawkeyes. Despite overwhelming public support for the Hawkeyes, with 88% of spread bets laying the short chalk at home, the line has consistently dropped back down to Iowa -2.5 every time it rises to Iowa -3. This indicates sharp buyback on Iowa State at the key number of +3, portraying a sharp line freeze on the Cyclones. As a result, Iowa State becomes one of the top contrarian plays of the week, presenting buy-low, sell-high value as an unranked road underdog against a ranked opponent.
In terms of totals, the smart money is leaning towards the under in a few of these matchups. The Kansas State-Tulane game has seen the total drop from 50 to 49, with only 23% of bets but 45% of money favoring the under. Similarly, the total in the Arkansas-Oklahoma State matchup has risen from 61 to 63, driven by 55% of bets but 86% of dollars on the over. Lastly, the total in the Iowa State-Iowa game has dropped from 37 to 35.5, with 58% of bets but 75% of dollars favoring the under.
As Week 2 of College Football kicks off, the early sharp money leans towards contrarian plays, suggesting potential value in underdogs and smart under betting strategies. The outcome of these games will likely have a significant impact on bettors' pockets and provide some exciting action on the gridiron.