Moldova has concluded voting in a crucial presidential election and a contentious referendum on making European Union membership a constitutional goal. With over half of the referendum votes tallied, the No vote has taken the lead with 56%, according to data from the electoral commission. This development defies several recent surveys that predicted 63% of voters would support the Yes campaign.

In the presidential race, early results indicate that pro-EU incumbent Maia Sandu is leading, though the race is tighter than anticipated. Sandu seems unable to secure more than half of the vote, necessitating a run-off on November 3 with the second frontrunner, Aleksandr Stoianoglo, who is backed by the pro-Russian Party of Socialists. Stoianoglo is performing better than expected, with nearly 30% of the vote.

At Sandu's campaign headquarters, the atmosphere was somber Sunday evening. An adviser described the results as "not what we expected," attributing Sandu's performance partially to the initial counts from rural areas. However, the subsequent inclusion of votes from urban centers did little to change the picture, prompting concerns over alleged vote-buying linked to Russia. Moldova's foreign ministry extended voting hours in Moscow, Romania, and France due to high turnout among expatriates, slightly delaying the counting process.

Voter turnout was over 51% when polls closed at 21:00 local time (18:00 GMT), rendering the referendum valid. After casting her ballot in Chisinau, Sandu emphasized the referendum's long-term significance for Moldova's future and urged citizens to avoid letting "dirty money" influence their decision, referencing allegations of a vote-buying campaign connected to Russia. The Kremlin has denied these claims.

Several presidential candidates, including Stoianoglo, expressed opposition to altering the constitution but voiced support for Moldova’s "European aspirations." Many young voters at the polling stations expressed a desire for a European future, citing economic opportunities and the need to move away from Moscow's influence after decades of independence from the Soviet Union.

At a polling station for residents of the breakaway region of Transnistria, which is supported by Russia, the BBC discovered evidence of vote-buying. A woman openly admitted to receiving cash for her vote, and there were allegations that Ilan Shor, a fugitive Moldovan businessman, was involved in financing efforts to sway votes against the EU referendum and Sandu in the presidential election.

As Moldova faces the potential for a run-off in its presidential election and grapples with the fallout from the referendum, the nation stands at a critical juncture in determining its alignment between European and Russian spheres of influence.