As the Paris Olympics come to a close, the attention of the world now turns to the exhilarating spectacle of the 2024 presidential race. The upcoming Democratic National Convention, set to take place in Chicago, promises to cap off a summer filled with dramatic plot twists and political intrigue.

The political rollercoaster began with former President Donald Trump's history-making criminal convictions, which oddly seemed to strengthen his hold on his party's nomination. Following that, President Biden delivered a revealing debate performance that exposed vulnerabilities, while Trump narrowly escaped an assassination attempt. The GOP National Convention in Milwaukee resembled a regal coronation, but Biden stole the spotlight with his unexpected handoff to Vice President Kamala Harris. This move left Trump without the grudge-match he had been eagerly anticipating since his defeat in 2020.

With little dissent, Democrats have now officially nominated Harris, despite her not winning a single primary or caucus vote this year. This unexpected twist showcases Trump's ability to unify a traditionally divided party. The decision to switch to Harris has successfully won back young, Black, and Hispanic voters who had previously abandoned Biden. Additionally, it has helped to appease despondent donors, as Harris managed to amass more than $300 million in campaign contributions in July alone. As a result, Trump's lead in national polls has diminished, with Harris potentially inching ahead in some crucial battleground states.

However, even with this apparent resurgence in Democratic fortunes, it is important for jubilant Democrats to remember that winning in November will still be an uphill battle. One major obstacle is the fact that US voters have yet to fully evaluate the untested Harris. Furthermore, the fundamentals do not seem to be in the Democrats' favor, as voters express greater trust in Trump and Republicans when it comes to key concerns such as the cost of living, immigration, crime, and foreign policy.

Nevertheless, the rapid rebound in Democratic fortunes serves as a reminder of Trump's political vulnerability. In both presidential races, he has failed to secure more than 47% of the popular vote. Instead, Trump relies heavily on intense support from working-class voters in order to win the necessary states and secure an Electoral College majority. While this strategy worked for him in 2016, it faltered in 2020, as Biden managed to assemble a national anti-Trump majority that narrowly propelled him to victory in swing states previously lost by Clinton.

Harris, however, faces a significant challenge as she inherits a substantial 38-point deficit with white working-class voters. To secure victory in November, she must work towards closing this gap, halt the defection of Hispanic and Black men, and strengthen support among independent voters. To this end, Harris has strategically chosen Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate. Walz's folksy persona may prove difficult for Trump to vilify, given his background as a former teacher, high school football coach, and veteran. However, it remains uncertain whether this selection will help Harris connect with disillusioned blue-collar voters and independents in crucial states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

Surveys conducted among working-class voters reveal interesting insights that could shape the strategies of both parties. A majority of working-class voters believe that abortion should be legal in most cases, indicating a potential challenge for Trump, who is subtly distancing himself from anti-abortion policies. Additionally, when it comes to education, working-class Americans tend to prefer improving the quality of public schools rather than subsidizing private institutions, as demonstrated by their opposition to school vouchers.

Moreover, pragmatic energy policies that balance renewable and fossil fuel sources resonate with this demographic. A majority of working-class voters support an all-of-the-above strategy that combines wind, solar, fossil fuels, and nuclear power to ensure affordable energy while actively reducing carbon emissions.

When it comes to foreign policy, working-class voters demonstrate mixed sentiments. While they express concerns about the risks and burdens of U.S. international leadership, they also reject Trump's "America First" approach and strongly support military aid to Ukraine, as well as the NATO alliance.

As the Democratic National Convention approaches, Harris and Walz face the challenging task of solidifying America's anti-Trump majority. It will be crucial for them to articulate center-ground positions that resonate with a wide range of voters. Only time will tell if their strategies can sway working-class voters and secure a victory in November.