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As California grapples with significant shifts in its political landscape, the state's housing advocates are voicing concerns about the potential implications of a second Donald Trump presidency on the housing market. These worries are fueled by Trump's previous actions and his future economic agenda, which many fear could undermine housing affordability and construction efforts in the state.

One of the state's most vocal housing proponents, Sen. Scott Wiener, expressed apprehension about Trump's economic policies, particularly regarding immigration and tariffs. According to Wiener, Trump's plans to deport large numbers of immigrants and raise tariffs could wreak havoc on housing markets and new construction efforts. Despite the lack of specific housing proposals from Trump’s campaign, housing experts are wary based on statements from his first term and insights from the Heritage Foundation's Project 2025.

A significant concern is the potential impact on immigrants and low-income Californians accessing subsidized housing. Policies expected from a second Trump term could complicate efforts to build affordable housing and restrict access for mixed-status households. The construction workforce, a substantial proportion of which includes undocumented immigrants, could face severe shortages if mass deportations occur, further straining the industry already grappling with an aging labor pool.

Experts also highlight the detrimental effects of increased tariffs on construction materials. Historical precedents, such as tariffs from Trump’s first term, increased the average cost of new homes by $20,000 to $30,000. Proposed tariffs, which could reach up to 60% on imports from China, have stakeholders worried about potential delays and cancellations of housing projects due to prohibitively high material costs.

However, there could be some silver linings. Trump’s potential easing of regulations could appeal to certain pro-housing officials across party lines. Bipartisan agreement exists on the necessity to tackle housing affordability, particularly in single-family homeownership, a sentiment reflected in the concerns of the wider U.S. population where housing costs are significantly problematic.

State and local governments, which hold sway over many housing policy decisions, could find themselves at odds with federal mandates. The heritage Project 2025 blueprint suggests extensive changes that include imposing time limits and work requirements on housing benefits and making structural reforms to the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). These measures raise alarms about the future of federal support for low-income housing projects, which significantly rely on vouchers for financial viability.

Ultimately, California’s housing advocates are navigating a precarious landscape as they prepare for the potential of a Trump administration that could introduce volatile changes to the housing sector. With the stakes high and the future uncertain, the state's leaders and experts continue to scrutinize and brace for the potential impacts on millions of Californians.