Bitcoin's Price Dips Amid Shift in US Election Prospects and Rising Crypto Liquidations

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ICARO Media Group
Politics
03/11/2024 20h21

**Bitcoin Faces Setback as Trump’s Election Odds Decline and Crypto Liquidations Surge**

Bitcoin's vigorous climb seems to be taking a pause as its value slips below the $68,000 mark, a shift influenced by weakening prospects for Donald Trump in the upcoming U.S. presidential election. The cryptocurrency leader saw its price drop to $67,569 on Sunday, marking the first such dip in about a week. Despite this, Bitcoin remained at $68,040 at the time of writing, down nearly 2% for the day but still holding a 1% gain over the past week.

Last Tuesday witnessed Bitcoin's meteoric rise to over $73,000, nearing its all-time high. Contributing to this surge were substantial inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), especially BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). However, the momentum began to taper off by Thursday and continued into the weekend, exacerbated by evolving political dynamics.

A new poll by Ann Selzer indicated that Trump could potentially lose Iowa to Vice President Kamala Harris, shaking the political landscape as Harris held a 47% to 44% lead. This insight, coming from a highly-rated pollster, caused Trump's dominant position in prediction markets to wobble. Trump’s odds on Polymarket plummeted from a commanding 67% midweek to 54% by Sunday, with Harris edging closer at 46%.

Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction market platform, showed similar trends. Harris had overtaken Trump on several occasions since Sunday night, with the candidates neck and neck at 51% to 49% at the time of writing. Just a week earlier, their gap on Kalshi mirrored Polymarket's broader spread.

The political uncertainty appears to have impacted Bitcoin’s trajectory. Analysts suggest that Trump’s potential presidency is seen as favorable for Bitcoin, contributing to the cryptocurrency's recent downturn as his election prospects dim. This has had a ripple effect on the broader crypto market, with total liquidations exceeding $315 million in the past 24 hours, according to CoinGlass. Long positions accounted for $250 million of this total, with Bitcoin contributing $76 million.

The current political landscape, combined with last week's robust performance and subsequent slip, has left many traders recalibrating their strategies. The intertwining of political events and financial outcomes continues to illustrate the volatile nature of the cryptocurrency market.

The views expressed in this article do not reflect the opinion of ICARO, or any of its affiliates.

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