Biden's Job Growth Faces Uphill Battle as Voters Remain Focused on Inflation

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ICARO Media Group
Politics
07/06/2024 19h00

In a surprising employment report, it was revealed that there are now 15.6 million more jobs in the United States than when President Joe Biden took office. However, despite this significant growth, it remains uncertain if voters will give him credit for it. Historically, voters have emphasized their concerns about inflation when evaluating Biden's economic performance.

Responding to the latest numbers, President Biden expressed his satisfaction with the progress, stating that "the great American comeback continues," and highlighting the longest stretch of unemployment at or below 4% in 50 years. The May job report saw the addition of 272,000 non-farm payroll jobs, although the unemployment rate slightly increased from 3.9% in April to 4% in May.

When Biden assumed office, there were approximately 142.9 million working Americans. The Bureau of Labor Statistics data released on Friday showed an increase to over 158.5 million employed individuals. Acting Labor Department Secretary Julie Su described this as a "coveted soft landing" that many experts believed would not occur.

Despite the positive job growth, President Biden swiftly shifted his focus to inflation, acknowledging the concerns raised by voters. He pledged to continue fighting to lower costs and emphasized his personal experiences growing up in Scranton.

Looking ahead, there are five more job reports and five Consumer Price Index readings before the fall elections, where Biden will face former President Donald Trump. However, an overlooked factor in Friday's numbers could complicate matters for the White House. The robust job growth may alleviate the pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates before the election, a move that would benefit Americans by reducing borrowing costs, particularly for homebuyers.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues are expected to meet next week, and no interest rate changes are anticipated at that time. However, market expectations of a rate cut in the subsequent July meeting have already decreased significantly from 21% to 8.8%.

Citi senior global economist Robert Sockin suggested that there could still be a possibility of a rate cut in July, citing concerns about recession risks and a moderation in inflation numbers.

The challenge for President Biden and his campaign lies in whether they can effectively communicate their message focusing on job growth to voters. Republicans are unlikely to shift their focus from highlighting the 20% increase in prices since Biden took office. House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith, a Missouri Republican, overlooked the job gains entirely, instead emphasizing how paychecks no longer stretch as far as before.

Various Democratic figures attempt to connect Friday's job data with Biden's economic record to appeal to jobs-focused voters. However, opinions by experts suggest that the economic narrative may already be set in voters' minds, which could present challenges for the President's campaign.

Amid the ongoing battle between job growth and voter concerns about inflation, it remains to be seen how these factors will shape the upcoming elections and voters' perception of Biden's economic performance.

The views expressed in this article do not reflect the opinion of ICARO, or any of its affiliates.

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