### Betting Markets Narrow Trump’s Lead Over Harris as Election Day Nears

As Americans head to the polls on Tuesday, the betting markets have significantly narrowed, diminishing Donald Trump's lead over Kamala Harris. The former president and his supporters have recently promoted betting market predictions as being more reliable than traditional polls, highlighting how the top platforms previously had Trump well ahead of Harris. However, with the election fast approaching, Trump's odds of victory have declined, with Harris even overtaking him on one platform over the weekend.

Betting markets have experienced a surge in popularity throughout this election campaign. Apps like Polymarket and Kalshi have climbed the app store rankings, offering an alternative to conventional opinion polls. A few weeks ago, bets placed on these platforms predominantly favored Trump, contrary to the closely contested scenarios depicted by opinion polls. Yet, Trump's apparent advantage has waned: Polymarket listed Trump's odds at 58% on Monday, a drop from 67% the previous week, while Kalshi reported his chances at 53%, down from 65%.

In a notable shift, another betting platform, PredictIt, rated Harris's chance of victory at 53%, edging out Trump, who stood at 51%. This marked the first time in nearly a month that the Democrat's odds surpassed those of Trump. On these platforms, people place bids on political futures contracts, meaning that purchasing a contract for a Harris or Trump presidency elevates the price and perceived probability of that outcome.

For instance, on Polymarket on Monday, betting on Trump would yield $1 for every 58 cents wagered if he won the election, while betting on Harris would bring in $1 for every 43 cents wagered if she emerged victorious. A surprising poll in Iowa, which recently showed Harris leading Trump, has sent ripples through the community of political observers, further influencing betting behavior.

Amid these shifts, questions have been raised about activities within the betting markets. Notably, when it was revealed that an individual placed a bet exceeding $30 million on Trump's victory on Polymarket, both the bettor and the platform were quick to claim that this was not an attempt to manipulate market odds.